This is Sam Ehlinger's final home game for the Longhorns. Although it's a less than ideal setting for what should be a celebrated career, there's also plenty on the line with a berth in the Big 12 title game still in play for the winner. The Cyclones are solid as expected, but haven't won at Texas in two years and just three times in the past 14 meetings.

This should be a close game because these are two similar teams. Thankfully, I can avoid the spread and concentrate on the total. As long as that total is over 56, I like the under a lot. First of all, while the results have been uneven on the scoreboard since Tom Herman arrived in Austin, the under has been a solid play; it's gone 20-14 in Texas' Big 12 games under Herman. On the other side, Iowa State and the under have a passionate relationship. The under is 15-5-1 in the Cyclones' last 21. The under has also managed to hit in each of the last five meetings between these two, and I like its odds of reaching six straight this weekend.

Iowa State coach Matt Campbell has done a great job with the Cyclones, getting them to respond well after their early-season loss to Louisiana. They currently own the nation's leading rusher and a very strong defense -- both of which are highly consistent. And it is that consistency that should help them prevail against a very inconsistent Texas squad. The Horns have covered just one of their past six Big 12 games.