I was hoping the public action would push this to +21, but it looks like we will have to grab Illinois +20.5 against Wisconsin. I "only" make Wisconsin -18.5 favorites against Illinois in the first career start for Graham Mertz. Take the points.

Last year Illinois was able to pull off a shocking upset against Wisconsin, and while I don't see it happening again on Friday, this is an Illinois team capable of staying within a large number. Wisconsin is starting Graham Mertz at QB. He's talented, but he wasn't supposed to be starting, and it's his first career start. With a top-notch defense to rely on, Wisconsin is going to take a conservative approach on offense. Plus, in Big Ten West divisional matchups last year, underdogs were 14-7 ATS. That's no accident. Nobody in the division is that much better than anybody else.