Rivalry games often wind up closer than forecasted. Not so in this one, owing largely to FSU’s coaching mess. Recent hire Mike Norvell is quarantined with COVID-19, which means the Seminoles have their fourth head coach in the last seven outings. They were dreadful in the opener against Georgia Tech and idle last week. Miami has blitzed two foes, and QB D’Eriq King has launched an impressive Heisman Trophy campaign, having yet to toss an interception.

This is a game of rival fighters coming off opposite outcomes. Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in a game the Noles led 10-0, scoring on their first two drives but not scoring again before and after two different weather delays. Miami comes off a big win over Louisville and beat Florida State in Tallahassee last year. Florida State's last four recruiting classes have ranked 23, 19, 12 and 7th. FSU's defense ranked 41st last year, and the Seminoles return 15 players with 7+ starts and 86% of their tackles from 2019.

When it comes to rivalry games my natural inclination is to target the Under, and this is a great spot to do it. Miami's offense moves a lot quicker this year, but it has yet to face a defense with a defensive line like Florida State's. Plus, aside from explosive plays, the Canes offense wasn't great against Louisville. The Under is 8-1 the last nine times these two have played, and it's going to be 9-1 come Saturday night.