The total has understandably inched up but, being still shy of 70, it demands an Over. Both defenses were sieves last season, allowing about 33 points per game each. SMU averaged 43 points scored and slapped 47 on Texas State a year ago. Bobcats QB Tyler Vitt is quarantined, but he likely had lost the starting gig to Memphis transfer Brady McBride, who has a galaxy of targets at his disposal.

With four players stuck in quarantine, including starting QB Tyler Vitt, makes this an even bigger hill to climb for the Bobcats. SMU has QB Shane Buechele airing it out behind all five returning offensive lineman, leading an offense that was seventh in the nation in scoring last season. I expect this one to get out of hand pretty quickly.

As you see, I’m clearly backing SMU this year — especially because of that offense. But in Game 1, with very little time to work out some minor changes under new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, there could be some growing pains. Because of that, expect a sloppy game that the Mustangs handle with ease. They just won’t win any beauty contests.

Check out the AAC predictions we posted on CBSSports.com, and you’ll notice how high I am on the future conference champion SMU Mustangs. Sonny Dykes has quarterback Shane Buechele back on a team that is loaded with talent — both homegrown and through transfers — including star wide receiver Reggie Roberson. There won’t be a home field advantage regardless of the crowd, Texas State was 0-4-1 against the spread at home last year and is still deep in rebuilding mode.