FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- The hook could make the difference in an even matchup. So could the time gap between the final regular-season game and the bowl for Western Michigan star RB LeVante Bellamy (23 TDs, 1,410 yards). Nagging injuries did not slow him down much, and he should be refreshed against the No. 21 defense in points allowed. In the postseason, if it’s a top-notch defense against a top-notch offense, usually side with the latter.

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- I wish I had a great reason to explain this pick, but in the end it boils down to me just fading Conference USA this bowl season. The conference is 2-4 so far, but its two wins were by its two best teams. The rest of the conference past FAU and Louisiana Tech has been soft all season. Now, that's not to say the MAC is filled with juggernauts, but this Western Michigan team is good enough to cover against a WKU team that's not as good as its 8-4 record would suggest.

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- WMU has not played great - or consistent - defensively this season. While the Broncos have an offense capable of threatening any opponent, their defense usually is giving the opposing team free access to the end zone. Look for more of that here, as WKU is firing on all cylinders offensively and playing much better defense.