If you want to take a Northwestern team that has only scored 100 points all season long to cover 41 points, go right ahead. I actually think the Wildcats will cover. Even so, the smarter play is on the total. Northwestern's offense is an epic disaster, but its defense has been fine. UMass won't be able to do anything against it. If this game is going Over it will need at least 50 points from Northwestern to do so, and Northwestern has bigger games ahead than this one.

Let’s acknowledge up front that UMass is the worst FBS team. Yet its 125th-ranked offense is two slots ahead of Northwestern's. The Wildcats own the worst yards-per-play average (3.90). Before scoring 22 against Purdue last Saturday, they begged, borrowed and stole a total of six points in their three prior outings and 35 in the three before that. They have not covered at home since eight games ago, and Under cashes in two of three Northwestern nonconference games going back more than 10 seasons. There's no way the Wildcats should be spotting this many points. Take the points.