The road team has won and covered the last four meetings, but I don’t see that happening here. Miami-Ohio is on a nice roll with wins and covers in its last three games, while Bowling Green has lost six of its last eight. Miami-Ohio is also on a 12-2 ATS run in conference play. I'm backing Miami-Ohio on Wednesday night.

The underlying metrics suggest that Miami isn't as good as its record suggests, and that's likely part of the reason this line has shrunk from 18.5 to 17. Well, I appreciate that value, as Miami might not be as good as its record would have you believe, but it's certainly 17 points better than Bowling Green.

The Falcons have been bad offensively this season. They have scored more than 20 points only twice this year. Meanwhile the RedHawks lead the MAC East and are trying to increase their lead over Ohio and Buffalo. Look for them to hit the ground running against Bowling Green. Take Miami (OH).