OUTBACK BOWL -- Whenever a total (44) is this low, a one-touchdown spot seems large. No doubt Iowa must beg, borrow and steal points against the No. 1-ranked defense for points allowed, especially with TE Noah Fant skipping the game to aim for the NFL draft. But Mississippi State DT Jeffrey Simmons is doing the same, which brings the Bulldogs’ D down a half-notch. Hawkeyes coach Kirk Frerentz ended a five-year bowl slump with a straight-up victory last season and improved to 9-6 ATS in happy-holidays games.

OUTBACK BOWL -- The Outback Bowl tends to be one of the more entertaining games on New Year's Day. In this matchup, the biggest question is how the Hawkeyes keep the pace defensively with the high-powered Bulldogs offense. I've always maintained that Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald holds the key to the offense and he is looking to go out with a bang, and so will Mississippi State.