A rugged non-league schedule has sharpened NIU for the MAC championship game. Though the tough slate has skewed the Huskies’ season stats somewhat, some differences with Buffalo cannot be ignored. The Bulls rank 53rd in FBS on offense, the Huskies 125th. Buffalo enters with a plus-11 points difference per game average, while NIU is minus-1. At 9-3 ATS this year, the Bulls have been undervalued. The skinny spread indicates that might happen once more.

Picking an Under in a Buffalo game this season has been a losing proposition, but a lot of that has to do with the MAC being filled with bad defenses. Northern Illinois does not have a bad defense. Buffalo's offense has scored over 35 points per game in conference play, but it hasn't been an efficient offense, and the Huskies will slow it down quite a bit.

Buffalo has not beaten Northern Illinois since 1968, so we should be witnessing a little bit of history when the Bulls win Friday night's MAC Championship Game played in Detroit. The game is indoors so the solid defense of Northern Illinois won't have an ally with poor weather and it should make Buffalo's balanced offensive attack better. Buffalo went 9-3 ATS this season, with eight of the games going Over due to a 35-24 average score. Buffalo gets the cover.