Shaka Smart is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since being with VCU. The Golden Eagles offense looks better with a healthy Tyler Kolek but they were down at half to Western Kentucky and went to overtime against the Buffaloes. NC State have won seven straight, the only double-digit seed left and the better rebounding team. The Wolfpack protects the ball better and have the guards to matchup along with DJ Burns, Mohamed Diarra, and Ben Middlebrooks to go up against Oso Ighodaro downlow.

At this point it's safe to say the ACC is probably a bit better than most people thought heading into the NCAA Tournament. I do believe Marquette is the better overall team here, but N.C. State has proven it can play with elite teams and momentum is on the Wolfpack's side. I like Marquette to survive and advance, but I am back N.C. State to get the cover here.

NC State has caught fire, winning seven games in a 12-game span. To this point, a strong contender for Dance MOP honors would be the Pack’s bruising 6-9, 275-lb. D.J. Burns, who put up 24 & 11 in the OT win over Oakland on Saturday and continues to punish enemy interiors. Other heroes are emerging for the Pack, including Stanford transfer G Michael O’Connell, who saved the Virginia game in the ACC Tourney and has scored in double-digits in six of the seven games in the win streak. Meanwhile, PG deluxe Tyler Kolek seems fully recovered from his strained oblique of late February, but Marquette still might be susceptible to getting worn down by the brawling Burns. Play NC State (NCAA at Dallas)

NC State is adept at avoiding turnovers (9.5 per game, 14th nationally), which fuels Marquette's offense. I also like the emergence of Wolfpack forward Mohamed Diarra: He's grabbed at least 12 rebounds in six straight games and should hurt the Golden Eagles on the glass. NC State is not a typical double-digit seed; the Pack lost a slew of tight games to bigtime competition before putting it all together at the start of the ACC Tournament. Look for another close one here.

There was a time to ride the Wolf Pack momentum play, but that was ACC tourney and last weekend. They were damn lucky at the end to survive Oakland, didn't show great basketball awareness there and their draw gets real now. Only 3 teams outside KenPom AdjD top 42 remain - 2 have superpowers, ALA (101st) pace/scoring, ILL (92) future NBA talent Terrence Shannon. And NC State (75th), well, you tell me. Marquette is more battle tested. MAR last 14 games (excluding 3 vs. UCONN): 12-2 ATS. Lost at Creighton (potential final 4 team) and failed to cover COL last game by 1.5. MAR combined KenPom O+D ranking: 40. NCST combined KenPom O+D: 117. Smells like double-digit win to me.