My simulations make Colorado -2.5 favorites in this matchup with Florida. Colorado is a legit top 20 offense and one of the best free throw shooting teams in the tournament. Injuries on the Florida side combined with a discipline Colorado defense (top 15 in defensive FT rate) will be the difference.

The wrong team is favored in this one, as models make Colorado the 2-pt favorite. The Buffs have rated highly all season and have gotten better in their last 10 games, ranking #21 nationally in offensive efficiency and #31 in defensive efficiency. Colorado is a strong rebounding team, and now has more of an advantage on the glass with Florida's big man out. In a game that could be decided by a few points, free throws will be the difference. Colorado has the edge here as it shoots 78.1% from the charity stripe.