Will be essentially a UConn home game in Albany and a second straight game vs. a Gaels opponent. The Huskies handled a good Iona team in Round 1 and has been rolling since the end of January for the most part. UConn is the way more athletic team and better offensively, and SMC struggled with good offensive teams that have an athleticism advantage in the past with one loss to New Mexico and two against Gonzaga. UConn is 0-5 this year when allowing teams to make 47% or more of their shots, but it's hard to see SMC getting that high as the Gaels made just 41% from the field against VCU and that's generally about where they land.

Sure, Saint Mary’s can beat UConn. But on this day, I think the Huskies are six points better than the Gaels, which means I favor them to cover and that’s it. UConn is 11-1 against the spread in non-conference games, 5-1 on a neutral court and 8-2 in its last 10 overall. This is a Huskies team that reached the height of the ratings, lulled at the halfway point of the season and picked up the pace over the past month. Expect UConn to cover.

UConn holds a distinct advantage in depth and athleticism. The Huskies deploy as many as 10 players, in contrast to the Gaels' half-dozen. UConn unleashes lively guards who are disruptive. St. Mary's favors a tepid pace that serves it well in the WCC -- except when it faces up-tempo Gonzaga. The Zags followed an upset loss in overtime to St. Mary's with two emphatic wins. UConn, located two hours from the game site (Albany), benefits from a semi-home court edge.