Baylor finished the season on a 2-4 skid, but all the losses came to teams seeded sixth or higher in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa State's defense gave the Bears problems; UCSB's defense is not in the same stratosphere. The Gauchos will struggle to defend Baylor's many 3-point shooters, led by L.J. Cryer (42.6 percent), Adam Flagler (40.3 percent) and Keyonte George (34.9 percent). Look for Scott Drew, who won the 2021 national title, to use Baylor's late skid to his advantage as the Bears start this tournament hungry and focused.

Iowa State beat Baylor three times this season by sending extra defenders to the ball and disrupting the rhythm of the Bears' stellar trio of guards with LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler and Keyonte George. The Gauchos have good size for a Big West team and can use that length with rotations to employ a similar strategy. UCSB also plays extremely slow, takes care of the ball and works the shot clock down to the very best look on offensive possessions. That's going to be tough challenge for a Baylor defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally and really sputtered down the stretch. I think Baylor still advances, but it could be sweaty.

My sims like the Under 144.5 in Baylor's opening round matchup with UCSB. These teams rank outside the top 250 in pace of play with the Gauchos playing as one of the slowest teams as they rank outside of the top 300. Baylor should have a 3 possession lead most of the second half here but I don't project them to be up so much that we have 5 minutes of garbage time. Look for the Bears to maintain a comfortable margin and clamp down defensively. I make this line 139.