Here we go again. I took this bet last week and ate the L. Today I'm back because it's the right play. This time there's a championship on the line so I think we'll get the proper effort out of Houston. Everyone loves this Penny Hardaway Tigers resurgence story after being down in the dumps but I think it's giving us value on the other side. My model is projecting this game at 6.5 points so we're getting a nice edge. I'll fade what appears to be recency bias at play here, which has lowered the number for our convenience, and lay the points with the Cougars.