While The Citadel does not defend nearly as well as a military academy named after a fortress should, VMI isn't any better, and I don't trust terrible defensive teams to cover spreads like this.

I love the Over in Citadel games. Last Saturday against Samford the final score was 107-93. They just don't play defense. The Bulldogs are ranked in the bottom 75 in defensive efficiency but are above average in offense. They face off against VMI, who has a more severe imbalance. The Keydets have a similar minimal defense approach but their offense ranks in the top 50 of D1 teams. So we're taking two teams that basically throw defense to the wayside to go over the line of 163. This is the right way to play this matchup, take the Over.