Oakland is the second-best Over team in the nation at 22-6. This includes playing Over in its last eight games. Northern Kentucky isn’t far behind at 14-8-1 to the Over. Their last two meetings both went Over by an average of 8.5 points. The key to Oakland's trend is poor defensive play that allows 82 ppg and 47.8 percent shooting. Take the Over on Monday.

Horizon League semifinal matchup from Indianapolis -- neither school has played since last Tuesday (Northern Kentucky advanced on a buzzer-beater) and somehow it's their first matchup of the season. The Norse have just two losses in their past 11 and those were by a combined 10 points. Oakland has dropped four of its past seven. Pretty much every model out there, including SportsLine's, says that NKU should be favored by at least a few more points than the current 1.5 number. Since the start of the 2017 Horizon League Tournament, NKU is 9-1 in the event with three titles. It also has won four straight in this series overall.

My model says the Norse cover in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value at this number. Northern Kentucky squeaked by Detroit Mercy in the quarterfinals of the Horizon League tournament for its ninth win in its last 11 games. Oakland got past Youngstown State in overtime to reach the semifinals. The Norse have held six of their last nine opponents under 74 points, winning all six of those contests. The Golden Grizzlies are 0-11 this season when scoring 73 points or fewer. Look for Northern Kentucky to play tight defense on Monday.