This is a blind play for me, so do with that what you will. I bet the Under in every conference tournament final. The logic is simple, and it has been effective in my years of doing it. The teams that reach these games are typically playing at least their third game in three days. In Mercer's case here, it's their fourth in four. They're tired. That leads to slower pace, and less accurate shooting. Also, particularly in one-bid leagues like this, there's the added stress of knowing the only way to reach the NCAA Tournament is to win this game. That leads to caution. So, cautious approaches and tired legs tend to result in lower-scoring games.