In addition to taking the Missouri moneyline, I'll also take the points. The Tigers have beaten three tournament teams so far in Oregon, Wichita State and Liberty. Don’t fall in love with Illinois’ win at Duke; the Blue Devils are down.

This game should be a pick 'em, but with Illinois' win at Duke, the Illini are -3. Insanity. This is Missouri’s chance to show it is for real in a bragging-rights game. Take the Missouri moneyline.

It will be interesting to see where the market goes on this game. I've already locked it in at -1.5 and -2.5 in various places. If the Tigers draw more support I will likely end up with a bigger position. Both teams are likely a little overvalued, but I'm skeptical about the 4-0 Tigers. Wins are always a good thing, but I want to pump the breaks a little as there is still a large talent gap between Oregon, Wichita State (8 active players for that game) and LIberty vs. Illinois. Look for the early season looks from Baylor and Duke to come in handy here. My simulations agree as I make Illinois -4.5 points better in this road game.