Michigan has won 18 -- 18! -- NCAA Tournament games outright since 2013. Its ATS record on neutral floors -- meaning the Big Ten Conference and NCAA tourneys -- is just as remarkable at 42-19-4 in recent seasons. Texas Tech plays demonic defense, but so do the Wolverines, whose offense is superior to the Red Raiders’.

According to KenPom, these are the two best defensive teams in the country. That seems to make the Under an enticing play, but I think this total is a little too accurate, and I don't see much value on either side of it. I do like the Raiders to cover this small spread, however, because they're somewhat similar to the Michigan State team that's handed Michigan three losses this year. I think Tech wins this game just under half the time, so I like the value I get with the 1.5 points.

Texas Tech has the No. 1 ranked defense and Michigan has the No. 2 ranked defense. I could stop here but there is more. Both teams play very slow on offense, Michigan ranks No. 290 in time of possession per play and Texas Tech ranks No. 253 in time of possession. Plus, both teams have a combined 42-28 Under record during the season.

Michigan is my team. They were my best bet last weekend and they came through for me. Texas Tech is a real good defensive team too, but I think Michigan is going to be too athletic for them. Take the Wolverines.