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    Pac-12 football championship 2021 odds: SportsLine Projection Model favors Washington as conference's best team over Oregon, USC

    The SportsLine Projection Model's simulations forecast Washington as the Pac-12's best team over Oregon and USC.
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    Oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook list the Oregon Ducks as +250 favorites to repeat as Pac-12 football champions this season, and voters in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 released this week have the Ducks as the top Pac-12 school at No. 11, followed by USC (+300) at No. 15. However, the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Washington, which is ranked 20th and is +350 to win the Pac-12, as the top team in the conference.

    The model simulated every FBS team in games against every other FBS team on a neutral field. Obviously, schools don't play many if any regular-season neutral-site games, but it's still a helpful tool regarding overall talent. The Huskies won their games 77 percent of the time, which ranked No. 11 nationally and easily the best in the Pac-12.

    The Huskies played just four games last year under first-year coach Jimmy Lake due to pandemic cancellations and finished 3-1, with that lone loss by five points to Stanford. UW actually won the North Division but couldn't play in the Pac-12 title game due to an outbreak on the team.

    Quarterback Dylan Morris returns as the starting QB – as long as he can hold off mega-touted recruit Sam Huard. Morris, a four-star recruit out of the state of Washington in 2018, completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 897 yards, four TDs and three picks in 2020. He also rushed for 57 yards and two scores.

    According to Phil Steele, Washington returns 18 starters, including 10 on offense. Caesars gives the Huskies an Over/Under of 9.0 wins, and they open against FCS school Montana on Sept. 4. The only non-conference challenge will be at Michigan on Sept. 11.

    Oregon and USC bring back 16 starters each; the Trojans return QB Kedon Slovis but the Ducks lost Tyler Shough to transfer. While the Trojans are ranked 15th in the AP Top 25, the model ranks them 20th in its simulation with Clay Helton's team winning 72.8 percent of all its neutral-site games vs. the rest of the FBS.

    The biggest difference between the AP poll and the model is Oregon, which as noted was 11th in the poll but is 26th in the simulations in winning 70 percent of its neutral-site games. The Ducks to have to visit Washington this season, with the winner there having the inside track on the North Division title. Oregon is a -130 favorite in the North with Washington at +135.

    Which Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Join SportsLine now to get 2021 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season. 

    Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays

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