2023 college football bowl odds, trends: Recent history says to fade most Pac-12 teams in final postseason for conference as we know it
The Pac-12 has eight bowl teams in its final season.
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If this were last year, would the Pac-12 have splintered apart like it did? The conference has eight schools in bowl games and Washington landed at No. 2 in the final College Football Playoff rankings, marking the only the third time a Pac-12 school reached the national semifinals in the CFP era. While every year is obviously different, especially now with the transfer portal, history has indicated it might be wise to fade all Pac-12 schools playing against a bowl opponent that won its regular-season finale or conference title game.
Since 2016, teams from the Pac-12 are a shockingly bad 3-22-1 against the spread in bowl games (12% cover) when facing an opponent coming off a win and just 6-20 straight up. The only SU and ATS win since 2020 was by Washington last season. The Huskies were +3 against Texas in the Alamo Bowl and upset the Longhorns 27-20 despite an obvious pro-UT crowd in San Antonio. Michael Penix threw for 287 yards, two touchdowns and a pick for UW, while the Longhorns' Quinn Ewers threw for 369 yards and a TD.
Those two will face off on New Year's Day in the Sugar Bowl national semifinal in New Orleans. No. 3 Texas is a 4.5-point favorite in the final collegiate game for Penix, who will probably finish second in Saturday night's Heisman Trophy balloting behind LSU's Jayden Daniels. Many sportsbooks have taken those futures down, as it's considered a near-lock that Daniels will win.
Here are the Pac-12 teams in bowls where this trend is in play, although I think we can agree this year's Pac-12 was the best it has been in years, even with USC disappointing:
LA Bowl hosted by Gronk, Dec. 16 -- UCLA (7-5) vs. Boise State (8-5): The Broncos beat UNLV 44-20 in the Mountain West title game and have won four in a row overall.
Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 23 -- Utah (8-4) vs. Northwestern (7-5): The Wildcats closed the season with a shockingly high-scoring 45-43 win at Illinois, their third win in a row.
Alamo Bowl, Dec. 28 – No. 14 Arizona (9-3) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (10-2): The Sooners torched TCU 69-45 in the regular-season finale, but star QB Dillon Gabriel is in the portal. He hasn't ruled out playing in the bowl, though.
Sun Bowl, Dec. 29 – No. 19 Oregon State (8-4) vs. No. 16 Notre Dame (9-3): The Fighting Irish crushed Stanford in the finale and the Beavers will be without starting QB DJ Uiagalelei, top RB Damien Martinez and coach Jonathan Smith (now at Michigan State), among some others.
Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 1 – No. 8 Oregon (11-2) vs. No. 23 Liberty (13-0): A huge deal for the Flames in their first major bowl. Ducks star QB Bo Nix, a likely third-place Heisman finisher (could finish second), plans to play instead of preparing for the draft.
Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1 -- No. 2 Washington (13-0) vs. No. 3 Texas (12-1): The Longhorns routed No. 18 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, their seventh straight win.
The games where this trend isn't in play: Cal (6-6) in the Dec. 16 Independence Bowl vs. Texas Tech (6-6), which was blown out in its finale by Texas; and USC (7-5), without Caleb Williams, in the Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl vs. No. 15 Louisville (10-3), which lost in the ACC title game.
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