Content on this page may include affiliate links. If you click and sign up/place a wager, we may receive compensation at no cost to you.
Best blackjack odds: Odds of winning at blackjack online
An expert analysis of blackjack odds, how strategy affects the odds of winning online blackjack games, and the top casino apps for blackjack players.
Blackjack odds become more interesting when players understand that they have multiple paths to victory in the game. In this guide, I will demonstrate how a bettor's odds of winning at blackjack focus on the probability of getting a better hand than the dealer, along with players' decisions during gameplay.
Casino Name | Welcome Offer | Promo code |
Bally Bet | Up to $100 reload bonus on first deposits at Bally Bet | None required |
bet365 Casino | Up to 500 bonus spins plus an 100% deposit match in casino credit of players' first deposits up to $1,000 | SPORTSLINE |
BetMGM Casino | A $25 sign-up credit plus an 100% deposit match of users' first deposit in casino credit up to $1,000 | SPORTSLINE |
betPARX Casino | Up to $1,000 in lossback credit plus 250 bonus spins | None required |
Borgata Online | A $20 sign-up credit plus up to $1,000 in credit as a 100% match of bettors' first deposits | SPORTSLINEBORG |
Caesars Palace Online Casino | A $10 sign-up credit plus up to $1,000 in credit as a 100% match of players' first deposits | SPORTSLINE |
DraftKings Casino | Up to $1,000 in First Day Replay credit plus 500 bonus spins | None required |
Fanatics Casino | 1,000 bonus spins for use on the Triple Cash Eruption slot | None required |
FanDuel Casino | A $40 credit plus 500 bonus spins | None required |
Golden Nugget Casino | 500 bonus spins plus up to $1,000 in casino credit | None required |
Hard Rock Bet | Up to $1,000 in lossback credit plus 200 bonus spins | None required |
Play Gun Lake Casino | Up to $1,000 in lossback credit plus 250 bonus spins | None required |
PlayStar Casino | Up to 500 bonus spins plus as much as $1,000 in deposit match credits | None required |
What are the odds of winning at blackjack?
Blackjack odds simply refer to a combination of the house edge in the game and probability. In blackjack online real money games, the odds of winning reflect the likelihood that the player's hand will get closer to 21 without busting than the dealer's hand.
However, the odds of winning blackjack are not identical to the true probability of that outcome. Odds to win blackjack games also account for the casino's interest, which is the house edge.
Payouts in blackjack reflect the odds of winning blackjack with that house edge taken into account. Rule variations, like the number of decks in play, can also manipulate the odds in blackjack.
Odds of winning blackjack in typical online blackjack games
By and large, playing at real money online casinos reflects playing the same games at physical casinos. Players find that blackjack odds resemble in-person experiences to a great extent.
People who look at a blackjack odds chart find that the data on them are hypothetical, based on ideal circumstances and an assumed set of rules. The blackjack odds table for each online casino and title offered on those apps can be unique, so it's wise for bettors to verify the odds before placing any bets.
In most blackjack games with standard rules, the house edge fluctuates between as little as 0.5% and more than 2%. Behind this range within the odds of winning blackjack is player strategy.
In games with standard rules, including between six and eight decks in play, players tend to win about 42% of the time. The house usually wins about 49% of the time, and the other 9% of hands result in a push.
Blackjack can be one of the most player-influenced casino table games because the decision to double down, hit, split, and stand can either make or break a player's chances. That's why the blackjack odds can vary from moment to moment during gameplay.
Blackjack odds chart by hand total
Breaking the odds of winning blackjack to simple percentages reflecting hand totals is not an exact science. Rule variations and player decisions can alter the math regardless of what hand a player holds.
Smart bettors use a blackjack odds chart as a baseline for getting an idea of how those decisions could play out, but never treat them as an absolute guarantee of any winnings. Enjoying casino games online involves playing the probabilities to bettors' advantage whenever possible.
Blackjack bust odds by hand total
Player hand total | Approximate bust chance with hit | Conventional guidance |
11 and below | 0% | Safe to hit |
12 | 31% | Borderline decision |
13 | 38% | Caution advised |
14 | 46% | Hit is extremely risky |
15 | 54% | Hit is not advised |
16 and above | 62% - 92% | Not safe to hit |
Blackjack stand recommendations by hand total
Player hand total | Typical outcome | Conventional guidance |
20 | Player win | Stand |
19 | Player win | Stand but beware of push |
18 | Player win | Stand based on dealer up card |
17 | Mixed results | Standing is substantially safer than hitting |
16 | Mixed results | Standing is significantly safer than hitting |
15 | Dealer win | Hitting and standing are nearly equally risky |
14 | Dealer win | Standing is slightly safer than hitting |
13 | Dealer win | Hitting is slightly safer than standing |
12 | Dealer win | Hitting is significantly safer than standing |
11 and below | Dealer win | Hitting is substantially safer than standing |
Dealer bust odds by upcard
Whether people play with casino bonus codes or real money, the dealer busting is always a welcome result. Normally, the worst-case scenario when this happens is a push for the bettor.
The blackjack odds related to whether the dealer will bust based on the value of their upcard (the card that is face up and visible to everyone at the table) move just as odds on winning blackjack swing for players. There are certain numbers which signal a high probability in players' favor in the odds at winning at blackjack, others which signal the opposite, and more numbers that bear less certainty.
Dealer bust odds
Percentages will vary slightly based on how many decks are in play and whether rules are in place that dictate when the dealer must hit and/or stand. The following information is for a six-deck game when the dealer must stand on all 17s.
Dealer upcard | Bust chance | Conventional guidance |
Ace | 11.65% | Players should examine their own hands |
2 | 35.3% | Consider standing |
3 | 37.56% | Stand based on hand strength |
4 | 40.28% | Stand based on hand strength |
5 | 42.89% | Strongly consider standing |
6 | 42.08% | Stand based on hand strength |
7 | 25.99% | Players should examine their own hands |
8 | 23.86% | Players should examine their own hands |
9 | 23.34% | Players should examine their own hands |
10, Jack, Queen, King | 21.43% | Players should examine their own hands |
The rules that change blackjack the most
Every blackjack odds table reflects a certain set of rules that, if changed, could alter the probabilities behind the odds. The odds of winning blackjack in every chance to play the game should be considered unique to the set of rules each game operates with.
Blackjack rules impact table
Rule | How it changes house edge | Best for players |
3:2 vs. 6:5 payout for blackjacks | 3:2 payout has lower house edge than 6:5 | 3:2 payout |
Dealer stands on soft 17 vs. hits on soft 17 | Dealer flexibility increases house edge by 0.22% | Dealer stands on soft 17 |
Number of decks | The higher the number of decks, the higher the house edge | One deck |
Players can or cannot double down after splitting | Choice to double down after splitting can reduce the house edge by 0.15% | Players allowed to double down after splitting |
Players can or cannot re-split aces | Ability to resplit aces can reduce the house edge | Players allowed to resplit aces |
Late surrender available or unavailable | Late surrender can reduce the house edge by as much as 0.1% | Late surrender allowed |
Blackjack peek/no-hole-card | No-hole-card can create a house edge that is up to 0.3% higher | Absence of no-hole-card rule |
Three things to remember with blackjack odds and rules
- The fewer choices the dealer can make, the better for you
- The more actions at your disposal, the better for you
- Verify all rules before placing bets
How player choices affect the odds of winning blackjack
Blackjack can be one of the casino games with the best odds for players when bettors follow basic strategy correctly. Optimization of the blackjack odds requires avoiding the most costly mistakes.
Hitting and standing
Making this decision is all about weighing the probability of busting against the probability of getting a card that moves a hand's total to or close to 21.
Doubling down
Doubling down is all about maximizing potential profit when a player gets an exceptionally strong hand. Strong double opportunities are when the dealer is very likely to bust or when a bettor's hand is so strong that the dealer's paths to besting that hand are very few.
Splitting pairs
Splitting pairs can turn a mediocre deal for a player into the potential for better outcomes. Bettors should always confirm rules related to splitting before play begins, especially in terms of whether players can resplit aces, double down after splitting, etc.
Surrender
Surrender rules can allow players to limit losses when the odds are favorable for a dealer to get a natural blackjack (exactly 21 on the first two cards). This is another area in which bettors should confirm procedures before games begin regarding whether surrender is an option and if so, when players can make the choice to surrender.
Blackjack side bets and why they usually cost more
The odds of winning blackjack get longer when side bets are factored in because side bets tend to govern a specific set of circumstances that occur comparatively rarely during gameplay. Many players at PA online casinos, plus the same in MI, NJ, and WV, discover that these bets typically do not produce a positive expected value over time.
Common blackjack side bets
Side bet | Typical house edge range | How to win |
21+3 | 3%-10% | Player's first two cards and dealer up card must match bet's 3-card poker designation (straight, three-of-a-kind, etc.) |
Insurance | 5%-8% | Dealer hits blackjack |
Perfect Pair | 4%-11% | Player's first two cards share number and suit |
Online blackjack odds vs. live dealer blackjack odds
For the most part, the odds on winning blackjack don't vary substantially based on whether a person is enjoying a live dealer game or an RNG (Random Number Generator)-based game online. The RNG in effect in the latter category is built so it replicates the randomization of card shuffling between each hand.
The table rules have a much larger impact on the odds at winning at blackjack than whether a physical deck of cards is being used. Bettors should consult each game's individual blackjack odds chart and inquire about any specific rules not listed prior to placing any wagers.
Online casinos with the largest live dealer blackjack libraries
Casino | Live dealer blackjack titles |
bet365 Casino | 30+ |
Caesars Palace Online Casino | 30+ |
DraftKings Casino | 40+ |
FanDuel Casino | 25+ |
Golden Nugget Casino | 40+ |
What blackjack tables give players the best odds
Each game's blackjack odds table can be unique, so it's important to consider the payouts and rules before each and every game. Players should never assume that the blackjack odds are going to be identical at each table.
Ideal circumstances for bettors include a 3:2 payout for hitting blackjack, a rule that mandates that dealers must stand on a soft 17, liberal rules for doubling down and splitting, and a number of decks lower than eight in play. It's also great if the game allows late surrenders.
On the other hand, avoiding a table with a 6:5 payout and narrow parameters for doubling down and splitting can be ideal for getting the optimal odds of winning blackjack.
Responsible play and realistic expectations
Even when players make correct decisions and play according to the probabilities, there are no guarantees within blackjack odds. Ideal circumstances are not an assurance of winning any single bet, much less making a profit on a long-term basis from the odds of winning blackjack.
Responsible players understand that a blackjack odds chart simply shows them what they may win if they do get lucky. The luck of the draw is the ultimate deciding factor in each wager.
Because of the unpredictability, players should control what they can in their gaming. That means establishing a betting plan with spending and time limits, then sticking to that plan regardless of how their luck turns out.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, contact the National Council for Problem Gambling for free resources to get help.
FAQ
What are the odds of winning blackjack?
The odds on winning blackjack fluctuate based on player decisions, rule changes, and the number of decks in play. However, in most situations, the dealer has a slight edge over players.
Do blackjack odds change online vs. live dealer?
The odds at winning at blackjack can vary from one game to the next based on rules changes and the number of decks in play, but whether the game uses physical cards or a digital facsimile is comparatively immaterial.
What blackjack rules give the best odds?
Bettors who consult a blackjack odds table should look for a 3:2 payout for hitting blackjack, liberal conditions for doubling down and splitting, restrictions on when the dealer must hit and stand, plus a number of decks in play below nine.
What are the odds of hitting blackjack?
The odds to win blackjack by getting 21 exactly depend on how many decks are in play plus the casino's house rules for a specific game. Most casinos will pay out either 3:2 or 6:5 for hitting 21, and this happens roughly once in every 21 hands.
Is 6:5 blackjack always worse for players' odds?
The difference between 3:2 and 6:5 in a single bet equates to about $0.30 in winnings. Over the span of millions of wagers, though, that means 6:5 odds equate to thousands of dollars less that winners collect compared to 3:2 odds.
Does basic strategy really improve blackjack odds?
Being aware of the basic probabilities in regard to whether it is statistically better to hit or stand, when to double down, when to split, etc., can make a huge difference between losing and winning at blackjack, especially over time.
Are blackjack side bets worth it for the odds?
The odds in blackjack side bets are long because the probability of the necessary circumstances occuring in a given round are low. Over time, blackjack side bets have a very poor expected value.
What is the best way to find player-friendly blackjack tables?
The fastest way to identify whether a blackjack game has ideal conditions for players is to verify the odds and confirm the rules. Ideal circumstances include 3:2 payout, generous conditions for doubling down and splitting, restrictions on when the dealer must hit and stand, and no more than eight decks in play during the game.
Bettors must be 21 years or older and otherwise eligible to register and place wagers at online casinos. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek assistance from trained professionals such as the Problem Gambling Help Network at 1-800-MY-RESET.
