Borussia Dortmund should take care of business at home, but I'm not expecting a goal fest. Dortmund's home matches have averaged just 2.5 total goals this season, and they've yet to concede at home. Their defensive numbers back that up, allowing just 0.95 expected goals per match. Werder Bremen's matches average 3.1 goals, but their 1.38 xG suggests that goals may be difficult to come by. Another factor worth considering is the international break. Teams can be sluggish coming out of the break, especially with players returning from international duty. I expect Dortmund to control possession, dictate the tempo, and grind out a comfortable victory.
