The absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not enough for me to back off the Chiefs now that the line has dropped two points ahead of kickoff. I did think Kansas City was overvalued as a double-digit favorite, but it is going to be able to move the ball just fine. Lots of money has been made over the years trusting Andy Reid off bye weeks, and I like KC to put it all together in crunch time as Cleveland comes down off its high from last week. The Chiefs have been one of the most frustrating teams to bet on ATS this season, but I like Travis Kelcie to have a tremendous outing and be the difference maker in the game.

I was on the fence with this spread at -10 but heavy action on the Browns has dropped it to -8. Now I think it's solid value on Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs are just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games but I think some of that can be chalked up to boredom. Andy Reid is also money coming off a bye in his career, going 14-7-1 ATS in the regular season and 2-0 ATS in the playoffs since Patrick Mahomes took over as starter.

A good run game and an opportunistic defense can win you games in the NFL. While the Browns may not get the win, that formula they have with Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and defensive end Myles Garrett should be enough to help them keep this a one-possession game.

The Chiefs are virtually everyone's pick for the best team in football, but they haven't really lived up to that status in the second half, failing to win by seven points or more in every game since Week 8, a string almost fully consisting of ATS losses. Their defense is vulnerable to good rushing offenses, and with Baker Mayfield only throwing one pick since Week 7, the Browns should be able to hang around in a high-scoring game. And when they take it to the red zone, where they're third in success rate, they should come away with TDs against the worst red-zone defense in the league. This line feels three points too high.

I don't like the way Patrick Mahomes has been playing. Over his last three games he has completed just 59.2 percent of his passes, thrown seven touchdowns and four interceptions and has a passer rating of 87.6. That's not him. A bigger problem for the Chiefs is that they may never see the ball. Kansas City's defense gave up 4.5 yards per carry during the season and will struggle to stop Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. After seeing what the Browns did last week without their coach and play caller, I wonder what they can do with him on Sunday. I'm taking the Browns.

Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson should be back from the COVID-19 list in time to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Cleveland also is getting back guard Joel Bitonio, though Jack Conklin (hamstring) is iffy. The Chiefs haven't beaten anyone by more than six points since their Week 8 stomping of the Jets. K.C. gives up 4.5 yards per carry, so Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have success. Chiefs win, Browns cover.