Tyreek Hill Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playerpage/2061095/demarcus-robinsonTyreek Hill's 241 non-PPR Fantasy points in 2018 led the WR position, and it wasn't even close. The next-highest scorer was Antonio Brown with 219.7 Fantasy points. In 2019, both Hill and quarterback Patrick Mahomes saw their otherworldly efficiency drop off a bit, while also dealing with injuries. Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what Tyreek Hill Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

The Chiefs went full 'run-it-back' mode this offseason, so their offense will almost perfectly resemble 2019's Super Bowl winning unit. At the beginning of the season, it seemed unlikely the either Sammy Watkins or Demarcus Robinson would remain Chiefs. But, both receivers will take the field for the Chiefs in 2020, along with first-round selection and William Hill second-favorite rookie of the year runner Clyde Edwards-Helaire. As such, this Chiefs offense is shaping up to be quite crowded -- with the just mentioned talents vying for Patrick Mahomes' attention along with Hill, Travis Kelce, Damien Williams, and 2019 second-round selection Mecole Hardman.

The 2020 Tyreek Hill Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 1,000-yard campaign. He's a first-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Tyreek Hill Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 10.6 ADP
No. 3 WR (non-PPR)
No. 5 WR (PPR)

Tyreek Hill Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

11.4 carries, 49.7 rushing yards, 0.27 rushing TDs; 
128 targets, 81.3 receptions, 1,225 receiving yards, 8.5 receiving TDS
179.9 Fantasy points (non-PPR); 261.2 (PPR)

Tyreek Hill 2020 Fantasy outlook 

Due to injuries to both players, Mahomes and Hill have both topped 50 percent of the snaps in only 22 of 32 games over the past two seasons. Hill's 16-game pace in those games is 90 catches on 138 targets for 1,420 yards and 11 touchdowns -- good for 298 PPR points. Michael Thomas was the only receiver to top even 275 PPR points last year.

From a volume perspective, nothing changed for Hill when he was healthy in 2019. He had a 23 percent target market share and 37 percent air yard market share in 2018. He averaged 8.3 targets and 118.6 air yards per game. In the nine games he played over 50 percent of the snaps in 2019, Hill had a 24 percent target share and 39 percent air yardage share. He averaged 8.3 targets and 99.8 air yards.

It's worth noting that Hill's 2018 per-game averages of 2.2 red zone targets and 0.75 end zone targets dropped to 1.67 and 0.44 in 2019. That's not an insignificant drop, and if his red zone role is again diminished in 2020, Hill's Fantasy ceiling will be lower than most would anticipate. Hill did average 2.3 red zone targets in Kansas City's three-game playoff run, during which he averaged 5.7 catches on 9 targets for 71 yards and 0.67 touchdowns.

If you take the injuries to Hill and Mahomes into consideration when examining their 2019 performance, there's little reason to worry about Hill's 2020 outlook. Given their relative lack of competition for targets, Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are preferable first-round wide receiver selections over Hill -- for me, at least. Hill has the potential to outscore both while playing in Kansas City's explosive offense, but his downside is lower than receivers like Adams and Thomas who could realistically see a 30 percent target share in 2020.