Heat vs. Nuggets Monday NBA Finals Game 5 odds, trends: Split spread action as Denver eyes first title, newfound optimism on Caleb Martin

A total of 11 active franchises have never won an NBA title, but that number will likely drop by one tonight with the Denver Nuggets, a former charter franchise of the ABA, looking to finish off the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets are 8.5-point favorites at BetMGM, but the spread action is as split, as it has been all series. Nikola Jokic is taking plenty of props action, as expected, as is Heat reserve Caleb Martin. Click here for model picks.

At -8.5, Denver is taking 51% of the bets and 52% of the money at the book. The total has risen a point to 209.5, with 62% of the bets and 63% of the money on the Over. At +300 on the money line, Miami is taking 79% of the bets and 51% of the money.

If not for the Nuggets playing a lousy fourth quarter in Game 2 and losing a close game, this series would have been a sweep. There are many reasons why Miami is in this hole, but it's mainly because  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo aren't getting much help – although Tyler Herro could be coming to the rescue in Game 5. He has been upgraded to questionable after not playing since Game 1 of Round 1 due to a fractured wrist.

Miami is 2-0 in elimination games this year. The Heat won the final play-in game at home vs. Chicago and dominated the Celtics in Boston in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Erik Spoelstra is 13-9 (.591) all-time in elimination games, the fourth-highest winning percentage in NBA history (minimum 20 games). Only Red Auerbach, Joe Lapchick and Lenny Wilkens are better.

Could the Heat simply be wearing down? Miami has played a total of 106 games this season, including the regular season and play-in tournament. That's a franchise record. Denver has played 101 games. The Nuggets' only home playoff came in Game 2 vs. Miami.

Miami's Martin Over 15.5 combined points, rebounds and assists at -120 is among the most-wagered player props tonight. Martin was great in the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Boston but largely invisible in the first two games of this series. His minutes, though, have gone up quite a bit the past two games (33 and 32, respectively) and so have his numbers. Martin has topped 15.5 PRA in both.

Other popular props: Jokic to score first field goal (+425); Jokic to record a triple-double (Yes +110); Jokic to win the opening tip (-115); and Jamal Murray Over 25.5 points (-105). It's interesting that Murray's assists prop isn't the popular one, as he's the first player to log at least 10 assists in each of his first four career NBA Finals games.

On the updated series line, Denver is -5000 and Miami is +1800, with 76% of the bets on the Heat and 65% of the money on the Nuggets -- who already are +500 favorites to win the 2024 title. Teams facing a 3-1 deficit in the Finals are just 1-35 all-time in the series. LeBron James and the Cavs in 2016 are the only team to come back. 

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