The Denver Nuggets have a chance to clinch the 2022-23 NBA title at home when they face the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday. The Nuggets lead the series by a 3-1 margin. Denver is favored by 8 points at Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 210 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before making any Heat vs. Nuggets picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows the Heat are incredibly resilient. Miami has racked up plenty of impressive wins during the playoffs, including a 7-5 record away from home. The Heat won Game 2 at Ball Arena behind an explosion in the second half, and Miami's defense is top-notch. The Heat held the Nuggets to less than 50% shooting inside the arc in Game 4, and Miami lived in the top ten of the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. 

The model also knows the Nuggets are outstanding at home. After going 34-7 at Ball Arena during the regular season, Denver is 9-1 in the playoffs with a +10.1 net rating. Denver has also played fantastic defense in the last two games. The Nuggets allowed only 94.5 points per game on 40.5% shooting across back-to-back wins in Miami.

Now, it has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you should be all over Monday, all from the model that's 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks!