SportsLine projection model evaluates National League playoff picture before Wild Card game

The Los Angeles Dodgers, as the No. 1 seed, are in a favorable position as the National League Playoffs begin on Tuesday evening. However, the Dodgers won't have an NLDS opponent until the dust settles in the NL Wild Card Game and, at present, the Washington Nationals enter the one-game battle as substantial betting favorites to topple the Milwaukee Brewers.

That expectation stems from a variety of factors, including the fact that Washington is playing at home and seemingly has a significant edge in starting pitching. Max Scherzer takes the ball for the Nationals and, while the Brewers have been able to cobble together just enough to reach the postseason, Milwaukee projects to utilize several pitchers in the Wild Card match-up. Beyond that, the Brewers are operating with a weakened roster, headlined by the absence of MVP candidate Christian Yelich, and SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh installs Washington with a 56 percent chance to advance to the NLCS. 

Because Milwaukee is a big-time underdog, there might be value on the Brewers in this one-game sample but, in looking ahead, expectations are substantially lower when evaluating the team's chances at a deeper postseason run. The SportsLine model gives the Brewers only a 10.8 percent chance to advance to the NLCS with an upset over the Dodgers, where as the Nationals are significantly higher at 18.5 percent. Beyond that, Washington has a 3.2 percent chance to win the World Series (compared to 16-1 betting odds), while the Brewers have only half of that at 1.6 percent (compared to 30-1 betting odds).  

Anything can happen in a one-game baseball sample and, in some ways, that is the beauty of the Wild Card format. With that said, the Dodgers are given more than a 70 percent chance to advance to the NLCS and, regardless of the result on Tuesday evening in the nation's capital, SportsLine's model believes Los Angeles is firmly in the National League driver's seat.