This is definitely a great pitching matchup between Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez, but we've already seen it once this season. Last month in Anaheim, Valdez only gave up one run on three hits and no walks, striking out a season-high 12 batters over eight innings in a 3-1 Astros win. In the same game, Ohtani picked up his only loss this season. He went a respectable seven innings, but still gave up three runs off six hits. With the Astros at home, I think we’re getting a decent price at -130. Take the home team.

Here's the other big pitching duel in the AL West tonight. Shohei Ohtani is basically baseball Hercules, and Mike Trout is Mike Trout. But they can't do it on their own. The Astros, slowly but surely, are rounding into form. It's still hard to go into Houston and beat them when Framber Valdez starts. Houston's winning outright in 66% of my model's simulations.