It seems unlikely this moves to a full field goal before kickoff, but you should wait until the last second to pick. While Baylor has been the more tested team one-third of the way through the season, Oklahoma State had two weeks to prepare for a revenge game and enters with what is clearly an improved offense. This as BU is coming off a hard-fought road win at Iowa State. One hesitation for the Cowboys is that they're starting their road schedule at a tough environment in Waco, but their offense is clicking at a tremendous rate. The Pokes are on a 9-1-1 ATS streak in Big 12 play, and while I like them straight up, it's worth taking any points you can get in what should be a close game.

I know Oklahoma State's schedule has been Charmin soft so far, but there's just something about Baylor I don't buy into. On a per-snap basis, its offense has done well, but it is terrible at chunk plays. Having consistent success on offense without explosive plays is difficult to maintain, and could be a problem against a solid defense like Oklahoma State. This game should be close like last year's two meetings were, and I'd rather have the points with the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have had two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Baylor defeated Oklahoma State 21-16 as a 7-point road underdog last season, even though the Cowboys outgained the Bears 333-242. Oklahoma State is 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread after its last six bye weeks. The Cowboys are 21-6-1 ATS versus clubs with winning records. I see value in Oklahoma State on the road.