OK, Brayden Point is out again for the Lightning, and both Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil will play for the Rangers, so we'll back the Blueshirts as they have won eight straight at home in these playoffs. Plus, getting the last line change and the the top line of Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Frank Vatrano away from Tampa's top defensive line led by annual Selke Trophy candidate Anthony Cirelli is a big deal.

I will personally play the alternate Under of 6.5 goals, to be honest, as I worry about an empty-netter with either team up 3-2, but as my only option on here I'm going Under 5.5 because the past three games have ended with exactly five goals. Andrei Vasilevskiy is really starting to play well for the Bolts after maybe a bit of rust, while Igor Shesterkin has been MUCH better at home this season, regular and post. May not have an ML pick as I'm undecided with two key forwards (Strome and Chytil) as game-time calls on the Rangers and the possible return of Brayden Point for the Lightning. Their statuses would affect what I do, so it depends when I know.

The Rangers outshot the Lighting 35-31 in Game 4 and out-hit Tampa Bay 35-27. I like how the Rangers play at home. This just might be a series in which the home team wins every game. Play on the slight home underdog.