Expert Picks
North Carolina won at Angel FC earlier this season. ...
CBS Sports Network game at 8 ET from Houston. I have no idea how many NWSL teams make the playoffs -- dang it, I hate not knowing things so had to look (8) -- and neither of these clubs likely get there. The Stars, who recently made a coaching change, are the league's worst club with just 13 points through 19 matches and astonishingly only nine goals scored. And leading scorer Jordyn Huitema (4G) is done for the season. Top assister Ryan Connaughton (2A) will miss a second straight game. Houston sits 11th in the table, so the playoffs aren't impossible, and no key players are out. The Dash can spread the scoring wealth and have had six different players score game-winners so far.
Gotham FC is atop the NWSL table and tied for best goal differential at plus-12. The reigning league champion is unbeaten in seven straight and has kept a league-high 12 clean sheets. Kansas City has managed only six points in its past six games and each opponent in that run has scored. Current (as in the K.C. nickname) leading scorer Temwa Chawinga (9G, 2A) is away on international duty for Malawi, and third-leading scorer and No. 2 assister Michelle Cooper (4G, 3A) is questionable with an injury. When the teams last met in late June, Gotham FC won 2-0 at a neutral site in Columbus as part of the NWSL Challenge Cup.
Bay City are not a good team. Let me be very clear as I take their ML here. They have just five wins over their 17 matches, and have only scored 18 goals over those match, while conceding 24. The thing is, I don't care about them, I'm always going to fade Chicago Stars. Chicago are the worst attacking team in this league and it's not close. They only have 9 goals scored this season, while conceding a massive 33 goals. Chicago will continue to be the punching bag of NWSL, so hop on the fade train early!
I know -158 is a gross number, however, in this tool I don't have the option to add BTTS, so I'm telling y'all, add BTTS and get this bad boy down to even money. Portland are a good team playing very hot or cold football at the moment. they were just throttled 5-1 by Utah Royals, but before that fought Gotham to a 2-2 draw. While this team is struggling for consistency, their games aren't lacking goals. Boston are in good form right now with only one loss in their last five and will keep this very competitive.
Boston apparently is playing a few home games this season in Rhode Island, including today's matchup on CBS Sports Network. The Thorns are higher in the table but traveling cross country and apparently without their co-second-leading scorers in Olivia Moultrie and Reilyn Turner. They each have five goals. Moultrie is second with five assists. Portland, winless in its past four overall, is undefeated at home but has lost six games on the road. A total of 14 of Boston’s 20 points on the year have been earned at home.
Boston Legacy moved up to 12th in the NWSL table after taking 10 points from their last five games. The expansion franchise made a slow start to the season, but it's building momentum, and the Legacy now has a realistic chance of qualifying for the playoffs. The players need to maintain that momentum when they take on Portland Thorns in Pawtucket this weekend. The Thorns struggle on the road - they've lost their last five away games - and they may be lacking in confidence after losing 5-1 to the Utah Royals last weekend. Boston should get a result in this game.
I know a lot of people might be new to betting on NWSL. It is similar to MLS in the sense you're going to see very aggressive numbers in favor of the home-team regardless of the matchup. Home-field advantage means a ton in this league, which is why we're seeing lines like this. Utah is the better side, and Cloe Lacasse and Mina Tanaka in their form they're in, I expect them to break through a Denver side who has just one win in their last five, even with home-field advantage.
There's a lot of people who enjoy watching NWSL due to their pretty consistent high-scoring matches. This is a league that is loaded with World Class attacking talent and some defenses that can be streaky. Washington is one of the exceptions to this. They have only conceded 13 goals this season and are one of the two teams averaging less than one goal conceded per game alongside Gotham. Four of their last five matches have ended 1-0. This is a team that plays good defense, and doesn't run up the score often. I like the under at almost even money.
Orlando sits 10th in the NWSL with a minus-1 goal differential and Racing Louisville second-to-last with only four wins -- zero away -- and a minus-13 goal differential that is also second-worst. The Pride eye payback for a 3-2 loss in Kentucky in April. They have won four of five at home and are among six teams in the NWSL with more than 15 points on home turf. Anna Moorhouse has set the Orlando single-season record for saves. But I'm burying the lede: The Pride's Barbra Banda leads the league with 12 goals but is away from the club for the Women’s African Cup of Nations. Since the beginning of July, the Pride have scored four goals -- tied for fewest in the NWSL.
As of today, we have MLS and NWSL picks, which is fantastic. Tonight's North Carolina at Denver NWSL game is on CBS Sports Network and it's the first-ever meeting between the franchises. Denver is unbeaten in three straight at home (two draws) and keeper Abby Smith has the fourth-most goals prevented (6.1) in the league (min. 5 games). North Carolina is 1-3 in its past four and we need star and leading scorer Ashley Sanchez (10 goals) to NOT find the net. NC is unbeaten in eight games when she does score but has a single win in eight when not. Thank goodness for the folks in CBS Sports research or it would have taken me hours to find even this little info.
I’m backing the home team here. When you look at the advanced analytics, these teams are pretty even across the board, but Denver gets the edge playing at home. Their opponent has scored just seven goals on the road all season, which is hard to ignore. Denver has also won the xG battle in four straight matches. The results haven’t followed yet, but if they keep creating better chances than their opponents, a breakthrough feels like it’s coming. This sets up as a good spot for that to happen.