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    NFL Expert Picks

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    Past Picks

    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +327
    15-10 in Last 25 NFL Player Props Picks
    Mackenzie's Analysis:

    Jauan Jennings could find himself some opportunity in this matchup. KC’s elite corners should be focused on Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, leaving opportunities for Jennings. While he only had one catch this past weekend, it was a critical 8 yards on the highlight play by Brock Purdy. Look for Jennings to continue to be targeted in these high pressure situations.

    Pick Made: Feb 08, 8:52 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +327
    15-10 in Last 25 NFL Player Props Picks
    Mackenzie's Analysis:

    The trust is only building with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He's stepped up the past two games, especially in high pressure situations, showing Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes trust him despite the regular season. There is a solid chance this could cash on one reception, I'd look into playing his longest reception prop too. The Sportsline Model projects him for 23 yards. With Rashee Rice looking a little less explosive the past two weeks, there could be some more targets for MVS.

    Pick Made: Jan 29, 9:52 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    The 49ers defense comes into this game with a clear directive: slow down Patrick Mahomes. That should leave plenty of room to run for a guy in Pacheco who has had at least 15 carries in eight of his last nine games. At his season average of 4.6 yards per carry, a 15-carry workload translates to 69 yards. But then you look at a 49ers team that has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks, giving up 100-plus rushing yards in five of their last six games after doing so just three times in 13 games prior. I expect this line to climb to the 75.5 range as I'd expect Pacheco to top 80 rushing yards here.

    Pick Made: Jan 30, 2:57 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    The 49ers receivers have a tough matchup against the talented Chiefs secondary, and that means this should be a productive day for Kittle. He's eclipsed 50 receiving yards in nine of his last 12 games, and the two he didn't since the start of December came against teams with questionable cornerback talent (Lions, Commanders). The Chiefs haven't given up much production to tight ends this season but haven't faced many good ones, and many of the better ones they've faced (T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry) have gotten to 50 receiving yards. I believe Kittle will get it done here as well.

    Pick Made: Feb 10, 1:53 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    The Chiefs come into this game with great depth in the secondary, and it's hard for me to see Kyle Shanahan making any receivers beyond Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk key parts of the game plan. Jennings has topped eight yards just three times in his last nine games, with one being in the divisional round when he took on an outsized role with Deebo Samuel's injury. After playing 77% of the snaps in the NFC Championship, Samuel should be all systems go with two weeks of rest. The other two games where Jennings saw significant work were blowouts where the team scored more than 40 points, which isn't how this game profiles at all.

    Pick Made: Feb 07, 4:43 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    Travis Kelce finished the regular season with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015, but the break he got in the regular-season finale seems to have done him good. He's topped 70 receiving yards in all three postseason games, giving him a streak of 12 straight playoff games with at least 70 receiving yards. He'll be up against a 49ers defense that has given up big games to elite TEs featured in their offenses (T.J. Hockenson and Trey McBride in the regular season, Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship). As Patrick Mahomes' most reliable target, Kelce should get a lot of work and post another big yardage day against a vulnerable defense.

    Pick Made: Feb 05, 5:52 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    Mahomes had one of his best games of the year at Allegiant Stadium, posting a season-best 79% completion rate with 298 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions. But that game was atypical of his performance down the stretch; after reaching 270 passing yards in five of his first seven games, he crossed 245 yards just four times in his last 12 games. The Chiefs should be able to lean on the rushing attack here, and this number would make more sense in the 240s based on Mahomes' recent performance.

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 2:31 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    Brock Purdy played at an MVP level for much of the regular season while throwing multiple TDs in 9 of 16 games. But his performance has dipped in the postseason, completing less than 65% of his passes in both games and throwing only one TD in each. The Chiefs have given up multiple passing TDs just four times this year, with the last occurrence more than two months ago. Even if the moment isn't too big for Purdy, the defense he's facing may just be too tough to throw multiple TDs against.

    Pick Made: Feb 05, 6:23 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +880
    12-3 in Last 15 NFL Team Props Picks
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    The 49ers have survived a few scares to get to the Super Bowl, but their defense has struggled down the stretch. After allowing more than 23 points once in their first 13 games, they've given up at least 29 points in three of their last five competitive games, with both the Cardinals in Week 15 and the Lions last week piling up more than 430 yards of offense behind an excellent rushing attack. The Chiefs have a capable rushing game led by Isiah Pacheco, but also one of the best QBs of all time under center. The Chiefs' scoring offense hasn't been as prolific this year, but I believe they'll get to 24 here.

    Pick Made: Feb 07, 2:43 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +880
    12-3 in Last 15 NFL Team Props Picks
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    The 49ers offense finished the regular season with the most points per drive in the league. But the Chiefs defense ranked third in the same metric and have been playing their best football in the playoffs, where they held two other offenses in the top five of points per drive to seven and 10 points. Only one team has topped 24 points against the Chiefs all year, and it's possible the moment is too big for Brock Purdy or rookie 49ers kicker Jake Moody, costing the team valuable points. With how the Chiefs have played games this season, I'd be surprised if this was a shootout similar to last year's Super Bowl, even with the talent San Francisco has on offense.

    Pick Made: Feb 05, 5:13 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    The Chiefs defense has been pretty good about limiting big pass plays as of late, with the Ravens managing a few thanks in part to Lamar Jackson's ability to extend plays with his legs. But no Bills player had longer than a 15-yard reception the previous week, and Tyreek Hill managed the only long pass for the Dolphins the week before. The Chiefs didn't allow a 25-yard reception in any of their final three competitive regular-season games. I'm not sure Kyle Shanahan is going to do much attacking downfield with Brock Purdy here, so fading the chances of Aiyuk getting a long reception seems like a solid play.

    Pick Made: Feb 07, 7:38 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    Christian McCaffrey is a massive -230 favorite to score a touchdown after scoring twice in both of the 49ers' playoff games. But he's also failed to score in two of their last six games. On the other hand, Pacheco has scored in seven straight games. McCaffrey may have the volume edge, with just two games falling short of 20 touches in his last nine, but Pacheco has only fallen short of 20 touches twice in his last eight. Pacheco's odds to score a TD shouldn't be equal to McCaffrey, but they certainly should be closer.

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 2:31 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +2053
    98-78-4 in Last 180 NFL Picks
    +1733
    78-61-3 in Last 142 NFL ATS Picks
    +910
    38-28 in Last 66 SF ATS Picks
    R.J.'s Analysis:

    The Chiefs are in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, and they got there by winning two straight road games as underdogs. Yet the market is making them a 'dog on a neutral field? The 49ers may have been the better team in the regular season, but they peaked prior to the playoffs, where they've scraped by at home twice as big favorites. The Chiefs are playing their best ball right now, with their receivers shaking off early-season drops to pile up first downs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy, and the Chiefs have the better defense and are catching points? We know what to do.

    Pick Made: Jan 29, 2:06 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +845.5
    74-54 in Last 128 NFL Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    Isaiah Pacheco has had an excellent season but has really come on strong down the stretch and through the postseason. Pacheco runs hard and punishes would be tacklers and it's been a revelation to see Andy Reid lean heavily on his young stud RB. Pacheco has 24+ carries in 2/3 Chiefs postseason games while averaging a healthy 85 rushing yards against 3 very solid defenses in BUF, MIA, and BAL. You could make the argument that SF run defense is the weakest of the group and we've seen SF run D get gashed by the likes of DET and GB in their playoff games. I believe we see another big dose of Pacheco and the Chiefs continue to lean heavily on him in neutral/positive gamescripts.

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 4:59 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +845.5
    74-54 in Last 128 NFL Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    I unsuccessfully faded the stud rookie WR in the AFC Championship, however this price is simply too good to pass on. SF possesses an elite pass defense and considering Mahomes unwillingness and perhaps lacking the personnel to attack downfield, the 49ers DBs will be physical at the LOS. I also believe we'll see KC implement a balanced approach while the Chiefs are working with a positive/neutral game script, thus limiting Mahomes dropbacks. SF's pass defense finished the regular season 4th in EPA per dropback, 3rd in PFFs coverage grade, and unsurprisingly were excellent against opposing QB's first reads. They also paired that with a ferocious pass rush and only two WRs reeled in 7+ receptions in their last 7 games (including playoffs).

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 5:10 pm UTC
    Key NFL betting terms to know:Against the spread:

    While there is an outright winner and loser in football games, there is also a winner and loser against the spread. This refers to the point spread that is determined by oddsmakers and the betting market. If Dallas is -7.5, it is considered the 7.5-point favorite and must win by eight points or more to cover.

    Money line:

    WThis is the simplest way to bet on a game and refers to the outright winner. However, large favorites could have large money lines, which means you'll need to bet a lot to make a small profit. Bettors usually prefer wagering on the underdog in that scenario since a small risk can lead to a large reward.

    Over/Under:

    Often referred to as the total, the over/under is the number of points expected in a game. There are also totals for season wins, player props, and more.

    Parlay:

    A football parlay is used to combine multiple bets into one wager, creating the opportunity for a massive payday. With football games throughout the weekend, a parlay can be decided in as little as one day or even one game.

    Prop bet:

    Betting on the spread and total are the most common ways to bet on football, but prop bets have been growing in popularity. They range from things such as a player’s total receiving yards to the odds of overtime happening in a game.

    Teaser:

    Similar to a parlay, a teaser combines multiple bets into one wager. Unlike a parlay, a teaser uses more favorable spreads at a lower payout. Common types of football teasers are backing two or three teams and moving each spread by six, 6.5 or 7 points.

    Buying points:

    Some sportsbooks allow bettors to add points to the spread to make it a more favorable wager at worse odds. For example, a bettor could buy three points and turn a 4.5-point underdog into a 7.5-point underdog.

    Contrarian:

    When a bet goes against the public, it is referred to as a contrarian bet. Underdogs are often the contrarian side, as most bettors prefer backing the favorite.

    Closing Line:

    The final odds posted when the game begins is the closing line. This line can be used to grade ROI (return on investment) and is also referenced in sports betting databases.

    Consensus:

    With so many sportsbooks taking wagers on games, the consensus gives bettors an idea of which team is taking the most money. A consensus bet is one that is generally agreed upon by most bettors.

    Cover:

    The team that beats the point spread is the team that covers. An underdog needs to lose by less than the listed spread or win outright, while the favorite needs to win by a larger margin than the spread.

    Favorite:

    Almost every game has a favorite, which is the team that is expected to win. Money line bets on the favorite pay less money than bets on the underdog, although the spread is generally the same return on both sides.

    First half:

    Some football bets relate only to the opening half of the game. Sportsbooks will also divide bets into quarters, giving bettors many different ways to approach wagering on a contest.

    Futures:

    While many bets are posted for individual games, there are also futures bets that often span multiple weeks or months. Common football futures bets are division winners and championship winners. Futures bets can be hard to predict, so they can have large payouts.

    Handle:

    The amount of money a sportsbook takes on a game is the handle. The betting splits (ticket count, money) can help shed light on which side the public is on and which side the professionals are on.

    Home-field advantage:

    Playing at home can be a major advantage in football, and home-field advantage is priced into the betting line. Bettors and oddsmakers do not always agree about how much this is worth, but it is generally estimated to be around 2.5 to 3 points in football, depending on the stadium.

    Hook:

    Oddsmakers often attach a half-point, or hook, to the spread or total. Games cannot land on a half point, so the hook guarantees a winner and loser on each side of the bet.

    Juice:

    Sportsbooks take a percentage of every bet to ensure profitability in the long run, and this tax is referred to as the juice. There is usually more juice associated with futures bets than with single-game wagers.

    Key Number:

    Football has more key numbers than any sport, as teams tend to win by a field goal or a touchdown. Games land on three points more than any other number, making it the most important key number in football.

    Laying the points:

    When a bettor wagers on the favorite to cover the spread, it is called laying the points. A bettor laying 3.5 points would need the team to win by at least four points.

    Line/Odds:

    The most basic football sports betting term is the betting line or odds. Sportsbooks set an opening line and the odds are adjusted after bettors begin wagering. Monitoring line movement is one factor that bettors use to place smart bets.

    Live Betting:

    Pre-game betting is still the most common way to bet on a game, but live betting has created a chance for bettors to wager throughout the contest. Some sportsbooks update their futures odds in the middle of games as well.

    Point spread:

    Every game has a point spread, which determines the favorite and the underdog. Teams are commonly favored by three or seven points in football.

    Push:

    When a game lands exactly on the betting line, it results in a push. Some of the common pushes in football are when teams win by three or seven points. Bettors get their original stake back in the case of a push, which can be disappointing or relieving based on the flow of the game.

    Reverse line movement:

    The line will occasionally move in the opposite direction of the public betting action. This usually happens due to large bets from professionals or inside injury information.

    Taking the points:

    Opposite of laying the points is taking the points, which is a point-spread bet on the underdog. Betting on a 7.5-point underdog would be called taking the points, and the team would need to lose by seven points or less (or win).

    Key NFL betting terms to know:Against the spread:

    While there is an outright winner and loser in football games, there is also a winner and loser against the spread. This refers to the point spread that is determined by oddsmakers and the betting market. If Dallas is -7.5, it is considered the 7.5-point favorite and must win by eight points or more to cover.

    Money line:

    WThis is the simplest way to bet on a game and refers to the outright winner. However, large favorites could have large money lines, which means you'll need to bet a lot to make a small profit. Bettors usually prefer wagering on the underdog in that scenario since a small risk can lead to a large reward.

    Over/Under:

    Often referred to as the total, the over/under is the number of points expected in a game. There are also totals for season wins, player props, and more.

    Parlay:

    A football parlay is used to combine multiple bets into one wager, creating the opportunity for a massive payday. With football games throughout the weekend, a parlay can be decided in as little as one day or even one game.

    Prop bet:

    Betting on the spread and total are the most common ways to bet on football, but prop bets have been growing in popularity. They range from things such as a player’s total receiving yards to the odds of overtime happening in a game.

    Teaser:

    Similar to a parlay, a teaser combines multiple bets into one wager. Unlike a parlay, a teaser uses more favorable spreads at a lower payout. Common types of football teasers are backing two or three teams and moving each spread by six, 6.5 or 7 points.

    Buying points:

    Some sportsbooks allow bettors to add points to the spread to make it a more favorable wager at worse odds. For example, a bettor could buy three points and turn a 4.5-point underdog into a 7.5-point underdog.

    Contrarian:

    When a bet goes against the public, it is referred to as a contrarian bet. Underdogs are often the contrarian side, as most bettors prefer backing the favorite.

    Closing Line:

    The final odds posted when the game begins is the closing line. This line can be used to grade ROI (return on investment) and is also referenced in sports betting databases.

    Consensus:

    With so many sportsbooks taking wagers on games, the consensus gives bettors an idea of which team is taking the most money. A consensus bet is one that is generally agreed upon by most bettors.

    Cover:

    The team that beats the point spread is the team that covers. An underdog needs to lose by less than the listed spread or win outright, while the favorite needs to win by a larger margin than the spread.

    Favorite:

    Almost every game has a favorite, which is the team that is expected to win. Money line bets on the favorite pay less money than bets on the underdog, although the spread is generally the same return on both sides.

    First half:

    Some football bets relate only to the opening half of the game. Sportsbooks will also divide bets into quarters, giving bettors many different ways to approach wagering on a contest.

    Futures:

    While many bets are posted for individual games, there are also futures bets that often span multiple weeks or months. Common football futures bets are division winners and championship winners. Futures bets can be hard to predict, so they can have large payouts.

    Handle:

    The amount of money a sportsbook takes on a game is the handle. The betting splits (ticket count, money) can help shed light on which side the public is on and which side the professionals are on.

    Home-field advantage:

    Playing at home can be a major advantage in football, and home-field advantage is priced into the betting line. Bettors and oddsmakers do not always agree about how much this is worth, but it is generally estimated to be around 2.5 to 3 points in football, depending on the stadium.

    Hook:

    Oddsmakers often attach a half-point, or hook, to the spread or total. Games cannot land on a half point, so the hook guarantees a winner and loser on each side of the bet.

    Juice:

    Sportsbooks take a percentage of every bet to ensure profitability in the long run, and this tax is referred to as the juice. There is usually more juice associated with futures bets than with single-game wagers.

    Key Number:

    Football has more key numbers than any sport, as teams tend to win by a field goal or a touchdown. Games land on three points more than any other number, making it the most important key number in football.

    Laying the points:

    When a bettor wagers on the favorite to cover the spread, it is called laying the points. A bettor laying 3.5 points would need the team to win by at least four points.

    Line/Odds:

    The most basic football sports betting term is the betting line or odds. Sportsbooks set an opening line and the odds are adjusted after bettors begin wagering. Monitoring line movement is one factor that bettors use to place smart bets.

    Live Betting:

    Pre-game betting is still the most common way to bet on a game, but live betting has created a chance for bettors to wager throughout the contest. Some sportsbooks update their futures odds in the middle of games as well.

    Point spread:

    Every game has a point spread, which determines the favorite and the underdog. Teams are commonly favored by three or seven points in football.

    Push:

    When a game lands exactly on the betting line, it results in a push. Some of the common pushes in football are when teams win by three or seven points. Bettors get their original stake back in the case of a push, which can be disappointing or relieving based on the flow of the game.

    Reverse line movement:

    The line will occasionally move in the opposite direction of the public betting action. This usually happens due to large bets from professionals or inside injury information.

    Taking the points:

    Opposite of laying the points is taking the points, which is a point-spread bet on the underdog. Betting on a 7.5-point underdog would be called taking the points, and the team would need to lose by seven points or less (or win).