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Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting odds, Week 1 NFL spread and Tom Brady MVP chances

The Buccaneers will be one of the NFL's most fascinating teams thanks to the additions of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Here's a betting analysis of the Bucs' 2020 schedule:
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While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won a Super Bowl in franchise history, they otherwise have been one of the league's doormats for the most part since their historically bad 1976 expansion season. Their all-time winning percentage is below .400. The Bucs also have never had a true superstar, but that all changes in 2020 with the offseason addition of six-time Super Bowl champion and three-time NFL MVP Tom Brady.

Could Brady win a fourth NFL MVP Award -- the record is five by Peyton Manning. This might be the most talented offense Brady has ever played on (yes, even better than the 2007 Patriots) with the likes of Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. 

The most-anticipated Bucs season ever begins Sept. 13 in New Orleans with a marquee matchup between Brady and Saints quarterback Drew Brees. They are both first-ballot Hall of Famers and two of the three best regular-season QBs in history along with Peyton Manning. Brees ranks No. 1 overall in career passing yards and TDs and Brady is second in both. 

New Orleans opened as a 3.5-point favorite on the NFL odds, which will be a bit of a rarity for Brady as he hadn't been an underdog in a regular-season game with the Patriots since Nov. 30, 2014. Brady is 14-3 straight up in his career in Week 1 games but 9-8 against the spread. 

Of course, Super Bowl 55 is in Tampa as the Bucs look to become the first team to ever play the big game in their own stadium.  

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING PROFILE

2019 record: 7-9 (third, NFC South)

2019 against the spread: 5-9-2

2019 ATS margin: +1.4

2019 Over-Under: 12-4 (NFL's top Over team

2020 strength of schedule: Tied for 16th-toughest; Bucs' opponents combined for a .502 winning percentage last year (128-127-1).

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WILLIAM HILL 2020 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS FUTURES ODDS

Win total: 9.5 (Over -130 favorite)

Win total vs. Patriots: Bucs -0.5 (-150), Pats +0.5 (+130)

To make playoffs: Yes -220, no +180

Division: +160 to win NFC South

Conference: +600 to win NFC

Super Bowl 55: +1200 to win second Super Bowl in franchise history (XXXVII)

NFL MVP: Tom Brady +1600, Mike Evans +20000, Chris Godwin +25000

Defensive Player of the Year: Shaquil Barrett +4000

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Antoine Winfield Jr. +5000

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ke'Shawn Vaughn +2200

Comeback Player of the Year: Rob Gronkowski +400 co-favorite

Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians +1200

SportsLine Model's projection: 8.8 wins (Under)

TAMPA BAY BUCS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS

Week 1 at New Orleans, 4:25 PM ET: The Bucs were at least 7-point dogs in five of their past seven visits to the Big Easy (3-4 ATS) but are +3.5 for this one. 

Week 2 vs. Carolina, 1 PM ET: Brady's home debut. Tampa has never covered back-to-back home meetings in this series.

Week 3 at Denver, 4:25 PM ET: As away underdogs, the Bucs were solid 3-3 ATS last year. They haven't been to Denver since 2012.  

Week 4 vs. LA Chargers, 1 PM ET: Tampa was 3-5-2 ATS last season in non-division games.  

Week 5 at Chicago, 8:20 PM ET (Thursday): Tampa got trounced in Chicago in the last meeting (2018) and is 2-4 ATS in the past six matchups. 

Week 6 vs. Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET: Tampa is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in the past three meetings but hasn't hosted the Pack since 2014.

Week 7 at Las Vegas, 8:20 PM ET: This will be Tampa's first game against former coach Jon Gruden. The Bucs covered once in four interconference games in 2019.

Week 8 at NY Giants, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): Each of the last three games in the series has been decided by three or fewer points.

Week 9 vs. New Orleans, 8:20 PM ET: The Bucs were at least 5-point dogs in their past three at home vs. the Saints (likely not this time) and went 1-2 ATS.   

Week 10 at Carolina, 1 PM ET: Cam Newton's final snap with the Panthers was in a 20-14 home loss to the Bucs in Week 2 last year.  

Week 11 vs. LA Rams, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): The Bucs ended a six-game ATS skid vs. the Rams with a shocking 55-40 upset last year in L.A.  

Week 12 vs. Kansas City, 4:25 PM ET: The Bucs have won five straight in the series (4-1 ATS) but haven't faced Patrick Mahomes. Brady has!

Week 13: BYE. As late as possible and way too late for players' sake. 

Week 14 vs. Minnesota, 1 PM ET: The Over is 8-2 in Tampa Bay's past 10 games following a bye week.

Week 15 at  Atlanta, 1 PM ET: The total has gone Over in four straight and six of the past seven meetings in Atlanta. 

Week 16 at Detroit, TBA ET (Could be Saturday): The Bucs won in Motown 38-17 last year as 6-point favorites to end a two-game ATS skid in series. 

Week 17 vs. Atlanta, 1 PM ET: The Bucs are 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) in their past four at home vs. the Falcons and only were favored once.

Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus 

EXPERT PICK FROM FORMER VEGAS BOOKMAKER MICAH ROBERTS: Over 9.5 wins (-130)

The Bucs are getting all the offseason hype, and it's well deserved. Expect the win total to be bet up to 10 before the preseason. Brady is generating lots of excitement, but it's the fast defense I like to get them over the hump, possibly win the division and play the Super Bowl at home. Despite being down a lot in games last season, they were No. 1 against the run and also created 28 turnovers. They were No. 1 in passing but threw 30 interceptions, one more than Brady has thrown the last four years combined. The Bucs' Super Bowl futures already have lost their value, but Over 9.5 wins still offers plenty.

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