Super Bowl 56 opening spread, odds: Rams on home field open 3.5-point favorites vs. Bengals

Never bet against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game as they remain unbeaten in them. They were 7-point underdogs Sunday at Kansas City but upset the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime despite losing the OT coin toss -- teams that lost the overtime coin flip are now 2-10 in NFL playoff history. The Bengals will face the NFC champion Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 56 from SoFi Stadium in L.A. on Feb. 13. The Rams, who beat the 49ers 20-17 Sunday at SoFi, are the second straight team to play a Super Bowl in its own stadium (Bucs) after it had never happened previously. They are 3.5-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook with a total of 50.

Kansas City blew a 21-3 first-half lead against Cincinnati. The turning point was clearly in the final seconds of the first half when the Chiefs had second and goal at the Cincinnati 1.  The Chiefs could have kicked a field goal there to lead 24-10 entering the break, but opted to for it. Patrick Mahomes' short pass to Tyreek Hill went for no gain and time ran out. Mahomes was nothing short of bad in the second half.

Teams with an 18-point lead had been 115-1 this season (regular season and postseason). The only team to win after trailing by 18 points were the Ravens against the Colts in Week 5. The 18-point comeback tied the greatest comeback ever in a conference title game. In 2006, Peyton Manning and the Colts trailed Tom Brady and the Patriots, 21-3, before winning 38-34. The Colts moved on to beat the Bears 29-17 in Super Bowl XLI.

Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is the second quarterback since 1950 to lead a game-winning drive in each of his first two career road playoff starts, joining Colin Kaepernick, who did it between 2013 and 2014. Burrow is the third QB in NFL history to have multiple game-winning drives in a single postseason in one of his first two career seasons. The other guys: Tom Brady in 2001 and Kurt Warner in 1999, who both won the Super Bowl.

Entering the season, the Bengals were +7500 long shots at Caesars Sportsbook to win the AFC. They were +1200 on the live odds Sunday when trailing 21-3.  

Los Angeles rallied from down 17-7 in the fourth quarter to end a six-game losing streak to the 49ers. The Rams had been 1-23 when trailing by double digits in the second half under Sean McVay. The other win also came in the NFC title game against New Orleans following the 2018 season. Rams QB Matthew Stafford, in his first Super Bowl, will be the favorite for MVP. 

It's the first-ever postseason meeting between the Bengals and Rams. Cincinnati is 0-2 in its two trips to the Super Bowl, losing both times to the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams are 1-3 in the big game and won it while still located in St. Louis.

Even though the game is in Los Angeles, the Bengals will be the home team simply as it's the AFC's turn. That only matters in regards to uniform choice and the coin toss – the visiting team calls the toss. Well it also matters regarding the locker room. The Bengals will be in the Rams' usual locker room. 

The Rams last played the Bengals Week 8 of the 2019 season in London and the Rams won 24-10 – the starting QBs that day were Andy Dalton and Jared Goff. That Cincinnati team was atrocious, but it led the franchise to selecting Burrow No. 1 overall in the 2020 draft. Burrow is just the third QB selected in the first round of the NFL draft to start a Super Bowl within his first two seasons in NFL history, joining Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger.

Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor was a former assistant under McVay with the Rams. Taylor was among the betting favorites entering this season to be the first coach fired and was the +450 favorite to be the first gone after the Bengals lost Week 2 in Chicago. He has quite the job security now. 

The initial SportsLine Projection Model simulation has the Rams winning 58 percent of the time by an average of 3.5 points with an Over/Under of 48.5 points.  

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