Patrick Mahomes heavy favorite on NFL odds to lead all QBs in passing yards Sunday

If the Kansas City Chiefs are to reach their first Super Bowl in 50 years, they likely will need a big game from quarterback Patrick Mahomes on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game against the visiting Tennessee Titans. The Titans' game plan will be to keep Mahomes, the 2018 NFL MVP, off the field by running the ball all day behind Derrick Henry and chewing clock.

The weather in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon – kickoff is 3:05 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium with the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites on the NFL odds – could benefit a running-oriented team like the Titans over a pass-happy club such as the Chiefs because it's going to be very cold. The forecast is for a high of 22 and a low of just 6 degrees. Despite that, Mahomes is the -145 favorite on the DraftKings NFL odds to throw for the most yards of any quarterback on Sunday.

No surprise there because Mahomes is clearly the league's best quarterback and last week against Houston threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns. He became the youngest QB in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards, five touchdowns and no picks in a playoff game. In a 35-32 loss at Tennessee in the regular season, Mahomes threw for a season-high 446 yards. In these playoffs, the Titans are allowing 277.0 yards per game through the air. FanDuel gives NFL odds on Mahomes at Over-Under 310.5 yards as well as 2.5 passing touchdowns on Sunday.

Also no surprise that the Titans' Ryan Tannehill is the +700 long shot on the most yards prop as he has thrown for just 160 yards combined in his team's two playoffs games. Tannehill has attempted only 29 passes because Henry has been so dominant. Tannehill threw for 181 yards earlier in the year vs. Kansas City.

Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is 1-2 in his NFC title game career and is the only quarterback on Sunday to have played a Super Bowl. He's +500 on this prop. In his three previous conference title games, Rodgers has averaged 236.3 yards per game. When the Packers were routed at San Francisco in Week 12, Rodgers had a season-low 104 yards passing on 33 attempts. The 3.2 yards per attempt were the fewest of Rodgers' career.

In his first conference title game, San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo is +350 for an NFL pick on this option. Jimmy G had just 131 yards last week against a good Vikings defense but only attempted 19 passes as the 49ers were running the ball well. In the first meeting with the Packers, he threw for 253 yards on 20 attempts, an excellent 12.7 yards per attempt.