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One contract trend since 2000 says Patrick Mahomes will not win another NFL MVP or Super Bowl

Patrick Mahomes got a record-setting 12-year extension this week, but those types of contracts haven't ended well for other quarterbacks this century.
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Without question, the other 31 teams in the NFL would have happily agreed on a 12-year extension worth potentially $503 million with quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the Kansas City Chiefs did this week. Mahomes is a singular talent who could go down as the best player in NFL history when it's all said and done.

Among other accolades, he is the first quarterback to ever win a regular-season MVP and Super Bowl before turning 25. He accounted for 12 touchdowns (passing and rushing) in the 2019 playoffs -- the most in a single postseason in NFL history. Last year, Mahomes was a crazy 5-0 when trailing by double-digits, the best record in a season in NFL history, including postseason. Shoot, he has yet to lose a game against the spread in his career as a betting underdog.

Mahomes' 89 career touchdown passes including playoffs are the third-most of any quarterback in his first three seasons behind Dan Marino and Andrew Luck. Consider, though, that Mahomes played ONE game as a rookie. Marino played 11 in his first year and Luck all 16.

With all that said, the type of contact Mahomes got has not aged well in the past. He is the sixth quarterback since 2000 to sign a contract of at least 10 years. The others: Michael Vick (Falcons), Daunte Culpepper (Vikings), Donovan McNabb (Eagles), Drew Bledsoe (Patriots) and Brett Favre (Packers).

None of those quarterbacks reached the end of their contract, won a Super Bowl as the starter or claimed an NFL MVP Award during that span. Vick was also 24 when he got his deal, while McNabb was 25, Culpepper 26, Bledsoe 29 and Favre 31.

It should be noted that the only one of those five who ever won an NFL MVP Award overall was Favre, who won three. Injuries certainly affected some of those guys (Bledsoe's opened the door for Tom Brady in New England), while Vick's career was derailed because he landed in jail.

Mahomes is a +350 favorite on the William Hill sportsbook moneyline odds to win a second regular-season MVP in 2020. Only nine players in history have won at least two. The Chiefs open Sept. 10 at home as 10-point favorites vs. the Houston Texans on the NFL odds.

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SportsLine Staff
SportsLine Staff