NFL Week 4 Chargers vs. Dolphins: One interesting trend hints at massive Miami upset

The Miami Dolphins are truly atrocious, perhaps worse than the only two teams in NFL history to finish 0-16: the 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns. Miami has been outscored by a whopping 117 points through three games, the worst through three in the Super Bowl era and behind only the 1922 Louisville Brecks (-134) and 1923 Rochester Jeffersons (-122) in league history. Louisville Brecks and Rochester Jeffersons? The Dolphins have totaled 16 points and one offensive touchdown.

It's quite likely that the Dolphins will be double-digit underdogs in most games this season, and they are again the biggest underdogs on the NFL odds board for Week 4 at +16.5 against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. However, that could be a major trap game for the Bolts. It's a 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoff and those are always very tough on West Coast teams. Plus, there's the heat and humidity in south Florida this time of year. That's usually a killer on visiting teams.

Perhaps those are reasons why Miami has won 12 of its past 13 games when hosting a West Coast team. Dolphins coach Brian Flores will stick with Josh Rosen at quarterback this week. He was 18-for-39 for 200 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in his first Miami start last week in Dallas.

Chargers star tailback Melvin Gordon reported to the team on Thursday but he's not going to suit up this week as he gets into game shape. Bad news after Week 4 for those fantasy football owners of Austin Ekeler, who is one of two players with at least 150 rushing & receiving yards this season along with the Saints' Alvin Kamara.

The Chargers have lost back-to-back games, something they didn't do all of last year. And while the Dolphins have that nice home record vs. West Coast teams, the Chargers have won their past 11 games as a double-digit favorite on NFL picks. The Bolts were last a minimum of a 16-point favorite when they were -16.5 at home vs. the Bengals last December and won 26-21. 

So which teams should you back in Week 4 of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender gets stunned?... Join SportsLine here to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks!