If you like close games in the NFL, then Sunday's New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins matchup isn't for you. The Patriots could be historically good this year and the Dolphins historically bad. Anyone for 16-0 and 0-16 in the same season? for the 1 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS from Hard Rock Stadium.
This won't come close to the biggest spread in NFL history and in fact won't even reach the Top 6. The largest spread ever was in 1976 when the Pittsburgh Steelers were 27-point favorites over the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished 0-14 that year and might be the worst team in modern NFL history (at least for now). The biggest spread this decade was Dec. 4, 2011, when the Colts were +20.5 at New England and the Patriots only won by a touchdown.
In fact, it's not even the biggest-ever Patriots-Dolphins spread. That was Dec. 23, 2007, when New England was -22 at home and beat Miami 28-7. The biggest spread of 2018 was Week 3 when Minnesota was -17 at home against Buffalo and was shocked 27-6. That made NFL favorites of 17 points or more 145-15 straight up in the Super Bowl era.
The Patriots would make history on Sunday, though, by covering that huge number because no road team has ever covered a spread of larger than 16 points. Tennessee won 24-0 at Cleveland as a 16-point favorite in 2000 and New England was also -16 when it won 56-10 at Buffalo in 2007. The Pats were last at least a 16-point road favorite less than a month later in that 2007 season when they were -19 in Baltimore but only won by 3.
Miami has never been this big of a home dog. It was +15.5 in 2007 against that stellar Patriots team that went 16-0 and New England won 49-28. For what it's worth, the Pats are just 1-5 straight up and ATS in their past five at the Dolphins. SportsLine's game forecast projects a 35-14 Pats win.
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