NFL Thanksgiving 2021 odds: Recent history says Cowboys vs. Raiders result will determine whether Dallas makes playoffs

The Dallas Cowboys of course annually play at home in the mid-afternoon game on the American Thanksgiving holiday, and over the past handful of years how America's Team has fared in that game has decided whether it reaches the postseason. This year on Thursday, Nov. 25, which is Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season, the Cowboys opened as 5.5-point favorites on the NFL odds against the Las Vegas Raiders … although that spread obviously can/will change.

Even though the Raiders and Cowboys play each other just once every four seasons – or at least that was how it used to be under the 16-game schedule, it will be the Silver & Black's third all-time Thanksgiving game at AT&T Stadium. Oakland lost there 24-7 in 2009 and 31-24 in 2013. The last meeting the Raiders had in Dallas that didn't involve Thanksgiving was 1998.

Believe it or not, since 2015 the Cowboys' result on the holiday has directly correlated to whether they make the playoffs that season. Caesars Sportsbook oddsmakers list Dallas currently as the +135 favorite to win the NFC East, -140 to make the playoffs and +120 to miss.

If the Cowboys miss the postseason, don't expect Coach Mike McCarthy back for a third season in 2021. Dallas probably starts 0-1 as a 7.5-point underdog in next Thursday's Kickoff Game at defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay.

Dallas won on Thanksgiving and made the postseason in 2016 and 2018, but lost and missed the playoffs in 2015, 2017, 2019 and last year.

• 2015 – Cowboys (+1) vs. Panthers: Carolina entered at 10-0 and won 33-14. Luke Kuechly and Kurt Coleman returned two of Tony Romo's three interceptions for touchdowns
• 2016 – Cowboys (-5.5) vs. Redskins: Dallas won 31-26 behind two rushing scores from Ezekiel Elliott and a passing and rushing score from Dak Prescott
• 2017 – Cowboys (+1) vs. Chargers: Los Angeles rolled 28-6 behind 434 yards passing and three scores from Philip Rivers
• 2018 – Cowboys (-7) vs. Redskins: Dallas won 31-23 behind 180 yards receiving and two scores from Amari Cooper
• 2019 – Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Bills: Buffalo won 26-15 behind a passing and rushing score from Josh Allen
• 2020 – Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Washington: The Football Team rolled 41-16 behind three rushing scores from Antonio Gibson

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