Matt Ryan to Colts odds changes: Indianapolis an 11-win team via SportsLine Projection Model; Ryan's 2022 totals set 4050.5 yards, 25.5 TD passes
What is the fallout of the Matt Ryan trade to Indianapolis?
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With Monday's trade of a third-round pick to Atlanta for ex-NFL MVP Matt Ryan, the Indianapolis Colts will have a new Week 1 starting for a sixth straight season. The SportsLine Projection Model is a big fan of the trade, bumping up the Colts by two wins for 2022, and Indy's futures odds across the board improved a bit at Caesars Sportsbook. Ryan's individual season totals also have been released: Over/Under 4,050.5 passing yards and 25.5 touchdown passes.
Since his debut in 2008 as the No. 3 overall pick out of Boston College, no other quarterback in the NFL has played in more games than Ryan (222). He's the Falcons' all-time leader in wins (120), passing yards (59,735), passing TDs (367), interceptions (170), completions (5,242) and attempts (8,003). Also since 2008, Ryan's 42-game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime are tied for the most in the league with Matthew Stafford. The two guys tied for second with 41, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, are both retired.
Meanwhile, here are the Colts' Week 1 starters since over the past five seasons: Scott Tolzien (2017), Andrew Luck (2018), Jacoby Brissett (2019), Philip Rivers (2020) and Carson Wentz (2021), who was already dealt this offseason to Washington. The Colts have been looking for a long-term answer since Luck retired in August 2019. Rivers was decent in 2020 and got Indy into the playoffs before he retired.
As part of the deal to acquire Ryan, the Colts picked up his $7.5 million roster bonus and added guarantees to the entirety of his two-year deal that has nearly $54 million left.
Ryan has been incredibly durable in his career and threw for 3,968 yards and 20 touchdowns last season with a pretty weak group of offensive skill position talent around him. While Indy's skill talent is better than Atlanta's, it might be hard for Ryan to top those 2022 totals of 4,050.5 yards and 25.5 TD passes simply because the Colts' offense is based around running back and 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor. Wentz threw for 3,563 yards and 27 TDs last year.
To win his second MVP, Ryan is +5000 – the same odds as Taylor and better than the likes of Ryan Tannehill (+7500), Wentz (+7500), Baker Mayfield (+7500), Trevor Lawrence (+7500), Deebo Samuel (+10000), Davante Adams (+10000) and Christian McCaffrey (+15000).
The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) had the Colts winning 9.0 games before this trade but now 11.1 with an 82.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. Caesars has upgraded the Colts to +115 co-favorites with the Titans in the AFC South, +1300 for the AFC title and +2500 to win Super Bowl 57 (had been +3000 there).
There already is some talk that former Falcons star receiver Julio Jones, recently released by the Titans, could join Ryan in Indy. Injuries have hampered Jones in each of the past two seasons.
Colts Pro Bowl linebacker Darius Leonard tweeted this to Jones after the Ryan trade: "aye man hear me out! Matt have already thrown you a lot of touchdowns in the dome in Atlanta, y'all could finish what y'all started in Atlanta in the dome here in Indy!"
| INDIANAPOLIS | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Before Trade | 9 | 52.90% | 25.60% | 45.40% | 2.40% | 0.90% |
| w/ Matt Ryan | 11.1 | 65.30% | 56.90% | 82.20% | 11.30% | 5.30% |
| Difference | 2.1 | 12.40% | 31.30% | 36.80% | 8.90% | 4.40% |
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