One of the best decisions the Kansas City Chiefs franchise has ever made was hiring former Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid in early January 2013. Reid inherited a Chiefs team that went 2-14 in 2012, matching the worst record in franchise history. Since that hiring, Kansas City has been the NFL's best bet on Over regular-season win totals as it has finished Over in all seven seasons.
Reid was mega-successful in Philadelphia from 1999-2012 in winning 130 regular-season games and 10 playoff games, reaching one Super Bowl. However, the '12 Eagles went 4-12 and were embarrassed in a 42-7 loss to the New York Giants in their finale that season. Reid was fired the next day by owner Jeffrey Lurie.
In this seven-year run of finishing Over its betting season win total, the lowest number Kansas City faced was 7.5 wins in Reid's first year. The club started 9-0 – including a very satisfying Week 3 win for Reid in Philadelphia – and finished 11-5 as a Wild-Card team.
The fewest regular-season wins the Chiefs have had straight up under Reid was when they were 9-7 in 2014, which was the last time they missed the playoffs. However, their betting win total was set at 8.
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Kansas City has finished with 12 wins in two straight and three of the past four regular seasons in part due to dominating AFC West competition. The highest betting win total in that span was 10.5 last year.
However, this year's Over-Under total of 11.5 at William Hill is tied for the highest in the NFL with the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs might only be underdogs twice: Week 3 in Baltimore and Week 15 in New Orleans. Perhaps Week 12 at Tampa.
Thanks to Tom Brady, the New England Patriots haven't gone Under a season betting win total since 2009. The Patriots have "pushed" twice in that span, though, including as recently as 2018 when they finished 11-5. With Brady leaving for Tampa Bay, New England has a win total of 9, and the Under is a slight favorite.
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