NFL trends: Cowboys and Chiefs have been best in-division bets in past 3 seasons
Dallas and Kansas City have made their NFL backers some money the past three years when facing division foes.
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In this space on Tuesday, we wrote that the two worst against the spread NFL teams in division games the past three seasons combined were the Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos. It almost makes cosmic sense, then, that the two best ATS teams over that stretch came from the same divisions: The Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.
The Cowboys are a crazy-good 15-3 ATS since 2017 against the NFC East, a cover percentage of 83.3. Believe it or not, Dallas has the same straight up record in the division too. The Cowboys failed to cover/lost as 2-point favorites in Philadelphia in Week 16 last year (Eagles won 17-9 to all but clinch the division title); they lost Oct. 21, 2018 as 1.5-point favorites at Washington (20-17); and they lost at home on Nov. 19, 2017, as 6-point favorites vs. the Eagles (37-9).
Dallas doesn't play its first division game this season until hosting the New York Giants in Week 5 but should be favored in all except perhaps at the Eagles in Week 8.
Kansas City is 13-4-1 ATS against the AFC West over the past three seasons, a cover percentage of 76.5. The Chiefs are also 16-2 straight up in that span. Their SU losses were 29-28 at home to the Los Angeles Chargers on Dec. 13, 2018; and 31-30 at Oakland on Oct. 19, 2017.
Kansas City covered every game in sweeping the AFC West last year and likely will be favored in all of them in 2020 as long as Patrick Mahomes stays healthy. The Chiefs open division play in Week 2 at the Chargers in the new SoFi Stadium in L.A.
Cincinnati has been a surprisingly profitable team in division games as well in going 11-6-1 ATS vs. the AFC North since 2017. The Bengals were terrible last year but did manage to go 2-3-1 ATS vs. the division. The only straight-up win was the season finale vs. the visiting Browns.
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