Kansas City Chiefs 2023 NFL schedule analysis, odds: Tyreek Hill revenge game vs. Dolphins in Germany, AFC title game rematch vs. Bengals on New Year's Eve

The full NFL schedule for the 2023 regular season will be released on Thursday night but there are going to be plenty of leaks before then. As many as three games for the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs have been revealed, including Tyreek Hill not returning to Kansas City and an AFC Championship Game rematch against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals on New Year's Eve at Arrowhead Stadium on CBS and Paramount+. DraftKings already has opened Kansas City at -3.5 for that game.

Burrow beat Mahomes by three points in the 2021 regular season, by three in the AFC title game following that season and by three in the 2023 regular season, but Mahomes finally got his revenge with a 23-20 victory at Arrowhead on Jan. 29 in the most recent AFC championship.

Mahomes was playing on a badly sprained ankle but was able to scramble with the clock winding down in regulation, which led to a late hit out-of-bounds penalty on Bengals linebacker Joseph Ossai that put K.C. in range for a 45-yard field goal try. Harrison Butker made it and then the Chiefs upset the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl, 38-35, for the second title of Mahomes' career.

It hasn't been made confirmed yet, but Donna Kelce, mother of Chiefs Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce and Eagles Pro Bowl center Jason Kelce, posted on social media this week that the Super Bowl rematch will be in Week 2 in Kansas City. Jason Kelce responded to the post, writing "lookout @AdamSchefter."

If Donna Kelce is accurate, that game probably will be on Sunday night in Week 2 because there's a Royals game that afternoon vs. Houston, which would make parking a nightmare if Eagles-Chiefs is a day game. There's also a Beyonce concert at Arrowhead on Monday, Sept., 18, so that date is out.

It was previously reported by a German newspaper that the Chiefs would host the Chicago Bears in Frankfurt, Germany, but apparently the Chiefs pushed back on that because they wanted to host Chicago in Kansas City with one of the league's flagship franchises so rarely visiting the city. The team got its wish, apparently, as it will be Miami against Kansas City on Nov. 5 in Frankfurt, with the Chiefs opening at -5.5.

The Chiefs were originally awarded International Home Marketing Area rights for Germany and Mexico in December 2021 as part of the global growth of NFL football.

Kansas City traded the All-Pro Hill to Miami last offseason for salary cap reasons, receiving a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29), second-round pick (No. 50) and fourth-round pick, plus fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2023 draft. Hill got a monster extension from the Dolphins and more than lived up to it by catching 119 passes for 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns.

Hill said this earlier this offseason on facing the Chiefs in 2023: "Chiefs Kingdom, when the Miami Dolphins come to Arrowhead Stadium this year, guess what we gonna do? Guess what we gonna do? I hate to say it, man. I hate to throw up the peace sign against y'all. I hate to do it, but guess what? I'm gonna be y'all worst enemy that day. I'm gonna be y'all worst enemy that day." Probably a bit of a downer for Hill and Chiefs fans that the game won't be at Arrowhead. 

Chiefs NFL futures odds via DraftKings

• To win Super Bowl 58: +600 favorite
• To win AFC: +330 favorite
• To win AFC West: -165 favorite
• To make the playoffs: Yes -450, No +350
• Over/Under win total: 11.5 (tied highest)
• To win NFL MVP: Mahomes is +650 favorite

Chiefs 2023 schedule

• Week 1 vs. Lions: Kansas City opened at -7 for the season opener and is 2-0 SU and ATS in the Kickoff Game.
• Week 2 vs. Eagles (not confirmed): K.C. closed as a 1-point underdog for the Super Bowl matchup in Glendale and won 38-35
• Week 9 vs. Dolphins (Germany): Ex-Chiefs wideout Tyreek Hill had 479 receptions for 6,630 yards and 56 touchdowns in his six seasons with KC, making the Pro Bowl in each. 
• Week 18 vs. Bengals: Four straight matchups decided by exactly 3 points (Chiefs 1-3 SU).
• TBD vs. Broncos:
• TBD vs. Chargers
• TBD vs. Raiders
• TBD vs. Bills
• TBD vs. Bears
• TBD at Broncos
  
• TBD at Raiders
• TBD at Chargers
• TBD at Jaguars
• TBD at Patriots
• TBD at Jets
• TBD at Packers
• TBD at Vikings

By opponents' 2022 winning percentage, the Chiefs have the league's 16th-toughest schedule in 2023 as its foes were a combined 147-140 (.512) last year. Kansas City went 6-0 against AFC West foes in 2022 to win the division for a record seventh straight season.

Sharp Football Analysis has different strength of schedule format -- it rates by opponents' averaging betting win total for 2023. Kansas City has the third-easiest schedule per that format.

The Chiefs and the rest of the AFC West will take on the entirety of the AFC East and NFC North. Cincinnati and Jacksonville are on the schedule because they finished first in their divisions in the AFC like the Chiefs did. The final game was calculated in a similar manner, with members of the AFC West playing the team that finished in its same position in the NFC East. That's the Eagles for Kansas City.

Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Miami were all realistic candidates to be Kansas City's opponent at Arrowhead in the annual Kickoff Game. It seems likely that would be a divisional game, so Buffalo and Detroit would now appear to be the leading candidates for the slot.

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