Jahmyr Gibbs 2023 NFL Draft odds: Patriots favored to select Alabama running back, reunite him with Bill O'Brien

Betting on any NFL Draft is a total crapshoot for the most part after you get past the first few picks, and that's why you see some interesting contradictions on draft props. Let's take the New England Patriots, for example. At DraftKings, the Pats are favored to take either a cornerback (+225) or offensive lineman (+225) with their first pick of the draft – currently at No. 14 overall – while a running back is a +1000 longshot. Yet on the prop for which team will draft Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, the Pats also are +550 favorites.

It's unlikely that Gibbs is the choice at No. 14 if the Pats stay there, and it doesn't matter where the Pats select him to win this prop, although Gibbs is ranked as the No. 14 overall prospect on the CBS Sports Big Board and No. 2 running back behind Bijan Robinson, who is the No. 5 prospect. Robinson will almost surely be the first back off the board, and Gibbs is the -330 favorite to be the second ahead of UCLA's Zach Charbonnet (+330).

There is no over/under draft position for Gibbs because there's such a wide variance on where he could be picked. A few mock drafts out of Boston do have the Patriots landing him at No. 46 overall in Round 2. The O/U for first-round running backs at DraftKings is 1.5, with the Under a heavy -400 favorite, meaning those oddsmakers expect Gibbs to not be chosen in Round 1. Over 1.5 is +300.

Last season after transferring from Georgia Tech, Gibbs was named third-team All-American as an all-purpose player at Alabama. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry to rank third in the SEC and 20th in the FBS with 926 yards on 151 carries along with seven touchdowns. He also led the Tide with 44 receptions, totaling 444 yards and three scores. Finally, Gibbs returned 13 kickoffs for 258 yards, with a longest return of 57 yards. His 1,628 all-purpose yards were third in the SEC. Gibbs was a finalist for the Hornung Award, which goes to the top all-purpose player in the country.

Running back is not the biggest area of need for the Pats. While they lost Damien Harris (106 carries, 462 yards, three TDs) in free agency to Buffalo, they still have rising 25-year-old Rhamondre Stevenson. The 2021 fourth-round pick from Oklahoma rushed for a team-best 1,040 yards and five TDs last year.  New England has now had eight different leading rushers in the last 12 seasons. At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is smaller than Stevenson, but carries more of a home run threat with his 4.36 speed in the 40-yard dash.

New England's first-year offensive coordinator is Bill O'Brien, who was the OC at Alabama for the past few seasons, so there's an obvious tie with Gibbs. Patriots director of player personnel Matt Groh said O'Brien has helped him and his staff when it comes to evaluating Alabama prospects and others from the SEC.

NFL.com gives Gibbs a grade of 6.37, which equates to "will eventually be plus starter," and his comp is Saints running back Alvin Kamara (who was briefly at Alabama), a five-time Pro Bowl pick and 2017 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He was a third-round steal in the '17 draft out of Tennessee.

The Patriots have taken a running back in the third round or later in three of the last four drafts, but it seems improbable Gibbs lasts until Round 3.

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