Dolphins NFL playoff odds: SportsLine Projection Model, oddsmakers very pessimistic Miami will reach postseason despite controlling destiny

On Monday night, the Miami Dolphins (8-7) caught a major break in facing the Saints and their fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The Fins dominated in a 20-3 victory to become the first team in NFL history to win seven straight games and lose seven straight in the same season. They now control their wild-card destiny, but neither oddsmakers nor the SportsLine Projection Model have much faith that the Fins will reach the playoffs.

Any seven-game winning streak in the NFL is impressive, but here are the quarterbacks Miami has beaten in that stretch: Tyrod Taylor, Lamar Jackson, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton/PJ Walker, Mike Glennon, Zach Wilson and Book. Obviously, Jackson is a former MVP but those other guys are journeymen, past-their-prime or overmatched rookies. Those teams combined are 32 games under .500 and Miami has beaten just two teams all year with winning records.

If Miami wins its final two games, it is guaranteed a playoff spot. So why aren't oddsmakers or the model very optimistic? Those two games are at Tennessee (Titans opened at -3) and home to New England. Miami did win at New England in Week 1, but those Patriots were a lot different with rookie QB Mac Jones making his first NFL start.

Oddsmakers list the Dolphins as +400 underdogs to reach the postseason and -550 to make it. The SportsLine Projection Model gave Miami a 14.4 percent chance before Monday night's win and that's up to only 19.4 percent – which equates to about +400 on the moneyline.

No NFL team has gone from 1-7 to the playoffs. There have been 232 seven-game losing streaks and 198 seven-game win streaks in a season all-time, but Miami is the first to have both in one season.

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