The Tennessee Titans have never won a Super Bowl, and it's difficult to see them reaching Super Bowl 56 this February with the news from Adam Schefter on Monday morning that superstar running back and MVP candidate Derrick Henry suffered a potentially season-ending foot injury in Sunday's 34-31 win over Indianapolis. Can the Titans win the AFC South without Henry? No question they can and probably will, and they are mammoth -3000 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, with a three-game lead over Indy and owning the tiebreaker, but advancing in the playoffs without Henry is another story.
Henry is undergoing an MRI today to determine the full extent of the damage to his foot. He is a two-time reigning league rushing champion priced +3000 to win NFL MVP. According to Fox Sports' Jay Glazer, Henry broke the fifth metatarsal bone in his foot in Sunday's victory.
The former Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama was a lock barring injury to join an exclusive group in winning the rushing title three straight seasons as he has 937 yards on the ground – Cleveland's Nick Chubb is a distant second with 584. Henry also leads with 10 rushing scores and has handled 219 of 230 running back rushing attempts for the Titans this season.
Among active running backs, Henry's streak of consecutive games started at 25 in a row is the longest in the NFL. His last missed game was in Week 16 of the 2019 season and the Titans lost 38-28 at home to New Orleans.
With Darrynton Evans out for the season due to a knee injury, Jeremy McNichols is the backup to Henry, but he's more of a pass-catching back with 21 catches for 203 yards and a TD. McNichols has only seven carries on the year.
Tennessee was +6 for Sunday night's game at the Rams, but that spread likely will get over a touchdown if Henry is indeed out (note: now +7.5 at many books). No other running back in the league would have such a major affect on the spread. The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) drops the Titans from 11.5 wins this season to 10.6 without Henry, but they still have an 88.7 percent chance of winning the AFC South.
If there is one bright spot here, at least the Titans found out ahead of Tuesday's NFL Trade Deadline, and they seem very likely to trade for a running back now. The Colts have made tailback Marlon Mack available, but it doesn't seem like they'd want to help the Titans.
Former NFL rushing champion and league MVP Adrian Peterson is available in free agency and apparently will work out with the Titans today. Ex-NFL Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley and Frank Gore also are out there.
| TENNESSEE | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Derrick Henry | 11.5 | 67.60% | 96.60% | 98.40% | 17.70% | 8.00% |
| w/o Derrick Henry | 10.6 | 62.40% | 88.70% | 92.10% | 5.90% | 2.10% |
| Difference | -0.9 | -5.30% | -7.90% | -6.30% | -11.80% | -5.90% |
Who wins every NFL game? And which teams will sink your bankroll? Join SportsLine now to get NFL picks every week, all from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times and is up almost $8,000.
