Derek Carr to Saints odds fallout: New Orleans now clear favorite in NFC South, but Super Bowl 58 odds unchanged
The Saints will sign free-agent QB Derek Carr.
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It appears the first major quarterback domino of this offseason is about to fall with former Las Vegas Raiders Pro Bowl signal-caller Derek Carr set to sign a four-year deal with the New Orleans Saints – the one team to make a trade offer to the Raiders before the team released Carr outright. The Saints get a bit of a boost to win the NFC South at DraftKings with the move. They're now the +150 favorites, as they are the only team currently in the division that knows who its starting QB will be. However, the Saints remain +5000 to win Super Bowl 58.
Carr will be reunited with Saints coach Dennis Allen, who coached Carr's first four games with the Raiders in 2014 before being fired. Carr had a no-trade clause with the Raiders and the reason he turned down a deal to New Orleans was because he wanted multiple teams competing for his services on the open market to increase his value. Players who have been released like Carr don't have to wait until the start of the league year March 15 to sign with a new team.
With Andy Dalton a free agent and Jameis Winston a cut candidate, Carr represented the best veteran option available for New Orleans. Last season, Carr completed 60.8% of his passes for 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 picks in 15 games. He was benched for the final two games but finished as the franchise's all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns. Carr has a 12-44 career record vs. eventual playoff teams and 51-36 vs. teams that missed the playoffs. He had six different head coaches and five play-callers in nine seasons with Raiders
The New York Jets and Carolina Panthers also showed the most interest in Carr. The Jets now figure to pivot to a potential Aaron Rodgers trade (the Raiders also are interested).
The NFC South currently projects to the division with the weakest group of quarterbacks, even after the signing of Carr. Carolina (+240 to win division) could turn to a veteran such as Jimmy Garoppolo or Carson Wentz, or draft a QB high in Round 1 come April 27. Bringing Sam Darnold back also isn't out of the question. Tampa Bay (+390) still hasn't replaced Tom Brady, and Atlanta (+425) has inexperienced Desmond Ridder as its current starter.
The SportsLine Projection Model upgrades the Saints from 9.0 wins to 9.3 with Carr in the fold. Las Vegas' chances of winning the division improved from 43.0% to 53.5%, which equates to -115 on the moneyline.
The Saints don't play the Raiders in the 2023 season, which means Carr won't have a chance for a revenge game in the regular season. Sportsbooks should release NFL season win totals later this month.
| WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP | |
| w/ Andy Dalton | 9 | 52.90% | 43.00% | 57.20% | 1.50% | 0.60% | |
| w/ Derek Carr | 9.3 | 54.70% | 53.30% | 66.60% | 2.40% | 1.10% | |
| Difference | 0.3 | 1.80% | 10.30% | 9.40% | 0.90% | 0.50% |
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