The Cleveland Browns won 11 games last season, their most since 1994, and reached the playoffs for the first time since 2002 – and they shocked the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round. While the Browns look like a team on the rise, their added 17th regular-season game actually decreased their 2021 playoff chances more than any team in the NFL via the SportsLine Projection Model. William Hill Sportsbook oddsmakers list the Browns as -175 favorites to play extra football this year and +150 to miss out.
Cleveland looks stacked on offense with QB Baker Mayfield, the best 1-2 punch in the league at running back in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, two excellent receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. (missed most of last season due to injury) and Jarvis Landry, and three good tight ends led by Austin Hooper.
Thus, general manager Andrew Berry focused largely on defense this offseason by signing former Rams defensive backs John Johnson and Troy Hill as well as ex-Falcons defensive end Takk McKinley and a few others on that side of the ball. Cleveland also has to be considered a favorite to sign former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney.
The Browns haven't won a division title since 1989, and it will be tough to capture the AFC North in 2021 with the Baltimore Ravens still loaded. They are +110 division favorites with Cleveland second at +180. While the Bengals (+2000) should be much better with a healthy Joe Burrow and a Top-5 draft pick, Pittsburgh (+340) could be on the way down.
Cleveland is given an initial Over/Under win total of 9.5, which surely would be enough for a wild card spot even though 10 wins wasn't enough in the AFC a year ago (eight was in the NFC).
The SportsLine Projection Model had given the Browns a 37.17 percent chance of returning to the playoffs, but that has dropped to 34.93 percent – that minus-2.24 percent difference is the worst in the NFL – with the addition of a 17th opponent, which is the rising Arizona Cardinals.
The Cards of course beat out the Browns in the free-agent derby for future Hall of Fame defensive end JJ Watt and also added former Bengals wideout AJ Green. The model is very high on Arizona, giving it a 70 percent chance of the playoffs.
Browns 2021 opponents
Home: Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals
Away: Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals
| BROWNS | DIV | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| 16 games | 13.08% | 37.17% | 1.85% | 0.63% |
| 17 games | 12.43% | 34.93% | 1.81% | 0.73% |
| Difference | -0.65% | -2.24% | -0.04% | 0.10% |
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