Led by NFL MVP runner-up Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills finished 13-3 last season, their most wins since 1991, and earned their first AFC East title since 1995. William Hill Sportsbook opened Buffalo with an Over/Under of 10.5 wins for the 2021 season, but bettors have hammered the Bills so much that the number is now at 11. To win the division again, the Bills are -155.
Being honest, the vast majority of NFL teams are taking leans on the Over right now. That's often the case this time of year as all fans are optimistic, but the Overs are being killed even more because of the addition of the 17th regular-season game. Buffalo got a pretty tough additional game, hosting rising Washington, the defending NFC East champion.
As of now, a whopping 93 percent of tickets sold – the highest percentage on tickets sold of any team in the AFC -- on Buffalo's Over/Under win total prop are on the Over as is 90 percent of all money wagered.
"It's been all over money on the Bills," said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. "We opened them at 10.5 over -130. They just went all in on the over, so now we're at 11 over -115. We had to move it up off the number. The Bills just keep on getting better and better, so I can't argue with the move."
Frankly, the only question entering camp for Buffalo is whether receiver Cole Beasley is serious about retiring because of COVID protocols. He has been one of the NFL's most outspoken players on vaccination, but we highly doubt Beasley gives up $4.7 million in salary. NFL teams with vaccination rates below 85 percent will have to keep running practices and meetings like they did in 2020 under COVID rules.
The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins both are set at Over/Under 9 wins and also taking huge Over leans. For the Pats, it's 81 percent of tickets sold and 68 percent of money; for the Fins, it's 81 percent of tickets sold as well and 65 percent of money. They open the season against one another in Foxboro, with New England currently -2.5.
"We've gotten some over money on the Patriots so far," Bogdanovich said. "A lot of people think the Patriots are going to rebound. If we keep getting over money at -160, we're going to go to 9.5. They've got a lot of good things going for them, it just depends on their quarterback play. If they get any type of decent play there, they'll get to the number because everything else is rock solid."
The rebuilding New York Jets have a win total of 6, but 67 percent of tickets sold are on the Over and 51 percent of money. The Jets' Under receiving 49 percent of dollars wagered is the fourth-highest in the AFC. Makes some sense as New York could struggle out of the gate with a new starting QB in rookie Zach Wilson – the team also still has yet to find a veteran backup -- and new coach in Robert Saleh. The Jets are +4 Week 1 when they visit Carolina and former Gang Green starting QB Sam Darnold.
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